Yes position
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next YouTube video?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.34
- Potential profit
- $333.34
- User PnL
- -$3
Polymarket Trader
DerApfelIstDerApfel
0xc289e28b16a6e35104603be57386a70183a7feda
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.71
- Realized PnL
- $51.9
- Win rate
- 62.5%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $1.51
- Potential payout
- $252.27
- Potential profit
- $250.76
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$38.49
No position
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132.78
- Potential profit
- $132.78
- User PnL
- -$23
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $86.59
- Potential profit
- $86.59
- User PnL
- -$43.17
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80.65
- Potential profit
- $80.65
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $62.5
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $1.46
- Potential payout
- $57.61
- Potential profit
- $56.14
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$28.54
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $1.47
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $54.08
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- -$8.53
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $0.81
- Potential payout
- $32.25
- Potential profit
- $31.44
- Multiplier
- 40.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.19
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.83
- Potential profit
- $26.83
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $0.45
- Potential payout
- $25.73
- Potential profit
- $25.28
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$9.55
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "China" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.68
- Potential profit
- $9.68
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "Baby" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.11
- Potential profit
- $8.11
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
GPT-5.4 released by March 9?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.62
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.51
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.6
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "Fake news" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.99
Yes position
Will Trump say "Border" during the Black History Month reception?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.91
Yes position
Will Trump say "Gas" or "Gasoline" during the Black History Month reception?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.34
Yes position
Will Trump say "Crime" during the Black History Month reception?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Hero" during the Black History Month reception?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "Historic" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "Governor" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "Stand" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "Energy" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will Trump say "Congress" or "House" in Rome, GA on February 19?
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "More" or "Again" 20+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hat" or "MAGA" during the Black History Month reception?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the Black History Month reception?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "DEI" or "Transgender" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Claude 4.7 released by June 30?No 49.9% 86.59 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Yes 24% 179.46 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Yes 6.2% 80.65 shares
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes 36% 6.66 shares
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes 45% 6.67 shares
- VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?Yes 3.1% 182.95 shares
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes 39.6% 571.65 shares
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes 52.5% 571.65 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes 19% 223.15 shares
- GPT-5.4 released by March 9?Yes 99% 55.17 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Yes 32% 93.75 shares
- VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?Yes 4.3% 92.05 shares