X-Rabbit.Sezu

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $10.4K
Potential payout: $10.5K
Potential profit: $99.75
User PnL: $2.25K

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $1.9K
Potential payout: $2.21K
Potential profit: $309.4
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $34.8

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $25.29
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.12K
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$4.16

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $30.12
Potential payout: $987.63
Potential profit: $957.51
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: $7.35

Yes position

Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $616.25
Potential payout: $850
Potential profit: $233.75
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $109.82

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $107.9
Potential payout: $830
Potential profit: $722.1
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$88.3

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $756.21
Potential payout: $799.8
Potential profit: $43.59
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $18.48

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $734.44
Potential payout: $767.84
Potential profit: $33.4
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $23.39

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $12.76
Potential payout: $531.6
Potential profit: $518.84
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: $5.41

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $475
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$10.75

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $420
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $80
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $42.1

No position

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $440.11
Potential payout: $450.47
Potential profit: $10.36
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $37.97

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $419.8
Potential payout: $420.01
Potential profit: $0.21
User PnL: $30.63

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $29.05
Potential payout: $349.99
Potential profit: $320.95
Multiplier: 12.05x
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Will any other model be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.97
Potential payout: $328.54
Potential profit: $326.57
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$2.2

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 11.9%
Current value: $35.55
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $264.45
Multiplier: 8.44x
User PnL: -$7.4

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $19.95
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $280.05
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$5.55

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $73.35
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $226.65
Multiplier: 4.09x
User PnL: -$7.6

No position

Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $255.65
Potential payout: $292.17
Potential profit: $36.52
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $110.66

No position

World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $168.29
Potential payout: $219.99
Potential profit: $51.7
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $1.97

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $137.97
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $62.02
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: $1.98

No position

Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $179
Potential payout: $192.48
Potential profit: $13.47
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $26.43

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $47.7
Potential payout: $179.99
Potential profit: $132.29
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$9.3

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $131.23
Potential payout: $149.98
Potential profit: $18.75
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.74K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $963.08

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $904.51

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $891.08

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $739.72

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $652.23

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $651.03

No position

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $619.81

Yes position

Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $552.2

No position

DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $539.62

No position

Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $536.74

No position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $507.06

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $487.45

No position

US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $465

Yes position

Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $441.02

No position

DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $419.09

Yes position

Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $389.48

No position

GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $388

No position

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $380.49

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $377.07

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $353.98

Yes position

GPT-5.4 released by March 5?