Polymarket Trader

0xc35ee5712742a18Ec5AFae1Df5b97fb38253D368-1769783488584

0xc35ee5712742a18ec5afae1df5b97fb38253d368

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $442.2
Realized PnL: $2.64K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.65K
Potential profit: $6.65K
User PnL: -$145.99

Yes position

Will France win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.24K
Potential profit: $3.24K
User PnL: -$79.8

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: Other

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.65K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.37K
User PnL: -$9.59

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $134.55
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $1.15K
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$465.45

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $87.5
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $612.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$139.5

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $62.54
Potential payout: $658.34
Potential profit: $595.8
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$84.54

No position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $484.87
Potential profit: $484.87
User PnL: -$400

Yes position

Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $195.3
Potential profit: $195.3
User PnL: -$80.01

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $116.35
Potential payout: $141.03
Potential profit: $24.68
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $6.35

Yes position

Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $13.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $86.5
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$6.5

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $8.16
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $44.47
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$11.84

Yes position

Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $7.1
Potential payout: $20.01
Potential profit: $12.9
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$1.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.72
Potential profit: $7.72
User PnL: -$1.98

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $450.77

Yes position

Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $448.07

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $290.72

Yes position

Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $199.58

Yes position

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.18

Yes position

Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $142.01

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.84

Yes position

Will the United States win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.33

Norway position

Winter Games 2026: Will USA or Norway earn more medals?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.59

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.73

Yes position

Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.41

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.3

Yes position

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.23

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.01

Yes position

Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.57

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.61

No position

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.63

Yes position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.93

No position

US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.7

Yes position

Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.24

No position

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.58

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $4

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Yes 38% 52.63 shares
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

No 78% 141.03 shares
Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026?

Yes 3.6% 106 shares
Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026?

Yes 1.9% 63.81 shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

No 52% 200 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Yes 98.6% 151.12 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Yes 66.2% 151.12 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

No 93.6% 279.62 shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

No 50% 100 shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

No 50% 100 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Yes 10% 1,538.46 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Yes 13% 769.23 shares