No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $453.25
- Potential payout
- $490
- Potential profit
- $36.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $75.95
Polymarket Trader
magicbed
0xc37be87e51c77b42a8651402ca608d748d299b85
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $510.4
- Realized PnL
- $5.47K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $381.48
- Potential profit
- $381.48
- User PnL
- -$68.77
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$26
Yes position
US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,600 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$51.6
Yes position
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $50.43
- Potential payout
- $183.38
- Potential profit
- $132.95
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$61.43
Yes position
2026 U.S. House election: Republicans flip the Democrats by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.82
- Potential profit
- $148.82
- User PnL
- -$6.92
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $144.58
- Potential profit
- $144.58
- User PnL
- -$62.95
Yes position
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $110.36
- Potential profit
- $110.36
- User PnL
- -$5.66
Yes position
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$85
No position
Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$27
No position
Will Amazon reach $248 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.1m?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $91.89
- Potential profit
- $91.89
- User PnL
- -$10.95
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80.99
- Potential profit
- $80.99
- User PnL
- -$3.34
Yes position
Don Lemon sentenced to prison?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 9.6%
- Current value
- $6.72
- Potential payout
- $69.99
- Potential profit
- $63.27
- Multiplier
- 10.42x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
Yes position
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.29
- Potential profit
- $68.29
- User PnL
- -$14.45
Yes position
Will PPSO win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65.33
- Potential profit
- $65.33
- User PnL
- -$3.53
Yes position
Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $63.81
- Potential profit
- $63.81
- User PnL
- -$14.04
No position
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56
- Potential profit
- $56
- User PnL
- -$3.22
Yes position
Will Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$8.5
No position
Will Microsoft dip to $465 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $790.1
Yes position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $701.96
Yes position
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $665.6
Yes position
Kristi Noem out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $330
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $282.8
No position
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.48
Yes position
Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250
Yes position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $228.37
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $226.44
No position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $218
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $170.79
No position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $162
No position
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $142.48
Yes position
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $141.21
Yes position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $123.16
Yes position
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $109.11
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $101.15
Yes position
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $95.6
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $84.91
Yes position
U.S. strike on Nigeria by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $80.4
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $77.77
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $75.93
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $75.4
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.26
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump say "Portland" during the State of the Union address?Yes 12% 4 shares
- Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?No 50.9% 2.04 shares
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes 1.1% 2.5 shares
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes 70% 3.48 shares
- Will US or Israel strike Iran first?Israel 44% 49 shares
- Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No 43% 2.68 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 96.5% 663.59 shares
- Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No 86% 1.61 shares
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes 27% 50 shares
- Will the US strike Somalia next?No 1.2% 81.27 shares
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?No 93.1% 56.54 shares
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?No 70.4% 102.96 shares