No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.2M
- Potential profit
- $2.2M
- User PnL
- -$2.2K
Polymarket Trader
DessertFalcon
0xc381f8931a266c8cf678532b20b17909c5e7a661
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.39K
- Realized PnL
- $15.39K
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.07M
- Potential profit
- $2.07M
- User PnL
- -$2.08K
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.06K
- Potential profit
- $7.06K
- User PnL
- -$2.68K
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.86K
- Potential profit
- $6.86K
- User PnL
- -$1.85K
No position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.49K
- Potential profit
- $2.49K
- User PnL
- -$175.41
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $2.24K
- Potential payout
- $2.35K
- Potential profit
- $104.52
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $29.55
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $440
- Potential profit
- $440
- User PnL
- -$9.24
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $142.25
- Potential payout
- $145
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $7.9
No position
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $4
- Potential payout
- $25.83
- Potential profit
- $21.82
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.98K
Yes position
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $4.89K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.31K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $713.16
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.41
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.18
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.56
Up position
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on April 2?
Ends Apr 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.39
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.13
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $16.86
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.17
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.22
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- $7
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.76
No position
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Cabinet meeting on March 26?
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
No position
Will Trump say "Cookie" during trophy presentation?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
Yes position
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- $2.42
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95.6% 125 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95.5% 65.39 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95.5% 60.86 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95.5% 197.45 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?No 12.5% 3,509.98 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 94% 1,900 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?No 99.9% 3,280.7 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?No 98.6% 4,590 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 8?No 65% 200 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Yes 50% 200 shares
- Jimmy Lai released by June 30?No 98% 338.65 shares
- Jimmy Lai released by June 30?Yes 2% 4,500 shares