Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $7.8
- Potential payout
- $2.23K
- Potential profit
- $2.22K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$52.2
Polymarket Trader
0xc3c5...a526
0xc3c54c17349ad2bd03c0af2549ba8a2b52a9a526
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $40.02
- Realized PnL
- $213.58
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.73
- Potential payout
- $489.37
- Potential profit
- $488.64
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$6.89
Yes position
Anthropic CEO arrested?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $6.02
- Potential payout
- $462.73
- Potential profit
- $456.71
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $345.45
- Potential profit
- $345.45
- User PnL
- -$38
Yes position
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.21
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $3.94
- Potential payout
- $96.15
- Potential profit
- $92.21
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- -$1.06
Yes position
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $1.51
- Potential payout
- $39.22
- Potential profit
- $37.71
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- -$0.49
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $1.76
- Potential payout
- $27.03
- Potential profit
- $25.27
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$8.24
Yes position
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $0.28
- Potential payout
- $16.91
- Potential profit
- $16.63
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$9.72
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $10.11
- Potential payout
- $10.54
- Potential profit
- $0.43
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Will Justin Herbert win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Ends Feb 15, 2027- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.3
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.25
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Ends Feb 15, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.2%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $9.01
- Potential profit
- $8.36
- Multiplier
- 13.89x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.6%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $8.77
- Potential profit
- $7.67
- Multiplier
- 7.97x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $6.18
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.2%
- Current value
- $0.86
- Potential payout
- $6.02
- Potential profit
- $5.17
- Multiplier
- 7.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Ends Feb 15, 2027- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $0.76
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $5.12
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $0.79
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $5.09
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
Yes position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $5.32
- Potential profit
- $5.22
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $0.42
- Potential payout
- $2.7
- Potential profit
- $2.28
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
Yes position
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $1.54
- Potential profit
- $0.52
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94
Cavaliers position
Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.05
Yes position
Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $32.2
Chicago White Sox position
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.91
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.83
No position
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.98
Spurs position
Spurs vs. Thunder
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.34
Toronto Blue Jays position
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.37
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $3.21
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will Albania come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.8%
- Multiplier
- 5.06x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Istanbul: Completed Match: Andrej Nedic vs David Jorda Sanchis
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Yes position
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will David Njoku play for Cincinnati Bengals in 2026-27?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Sweden be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-05-07?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?Yes 11% 345.45 shares
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox 44% 40.91 shares
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes 67.4% 19.6 shares
- Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026?Yes 2.6% 32.96 shares
- Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026?Yes 9.2% 14.44 shares
- Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026?Yes 5.4% 35 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27?Yes 26% 96.15 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?Yes 1.6% 312.5 shares
- Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026?Yes 6.8% 201.68 shares
- Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026?Yes 17.1% 117.82 shares
- Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026?Yes 1.4% 401.9 shares
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over 0.1% 1,000 shares