Polymarket Trader

LudwigVonMises

0xc432a1b8fafca668688c23052f4f722552ef0fc9

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.15K
Realized PnL: $519.57
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22.6%
Current value: $229.88
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $789.55
Multiplier: 4.43x
User PnL: -$145.12

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $403.32
Potential payout: $927.18
Potential profit: $523.86
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$121.67

Yes position

Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $178.57
Potential profit: $178.57
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $172.41
Potential profit: $172.41
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.1%
Current value: $32.57
Potential payout: $162.46
Potential profit: $129.88
Multiplier: 4.99x
User PnL: -$42.43

Yes position

Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $142.11
Potential payout: $158.78
Potential profit: $16.67
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $12.11

No position

Blue wave in 2026?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $35.41
Potential payout: $128.77
Potential profit: $93.36
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $0.41

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $101.45
Potential payout: $116.01
Potential profit: $14.56
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.45

Yes position

Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.5
Potential profit: $101.5
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $47.07
Potential payout: $95.09
Potential profit: $48.02
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$2.93

Yes position

Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $91.25
Potential profit: $91.25
User PnL: -$1.79

Yes position

Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79.32
Potential profit: $79.32
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $55.36
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $16.07
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $5.36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.81
Potential profit: $62.81
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $12.24
Potential payout: $62.75
Potential profit: $50.52
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$22.76

Yes position

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $61.24
Potential profit: $61.21
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.97

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 52.7%
Current value: $32.2
Potential payout: $61.16
Potential profit: $28.96
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $61.01
Potential profit: $59.76
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$3.75

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 79.4%
Current value: $48.33
Potential payout: $60.9
Potential profit: $12.58
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $8.1
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $51.9
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$6.9

Yes position

Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.65
Potential profit: $59.65
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.96
Potential profit: $56.96
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 29?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.33
Potential profit: $56.33
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.37

Yes position

Will "Anaconda" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.01

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.7

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.85

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.44

No position

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.98

No position

Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 22?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.24

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.75

Yes position

Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Brazil record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 1?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.42

No position

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.08

Yes position

Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.71

No position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 29?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.56

Yes position

Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.24

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 24?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.02

Yes position

Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.67

Yes position

Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.32

No position

Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.67

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.64

Yes position

Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.64

No position

Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.24

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 82.1% 60.9 shares
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 87.2% 40.15 shares
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

No 72% 12.76 shares
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Yes 73.6% 13.58 shares
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 36% 27.78 shares
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 52.6% 95.09 shares
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 17% 29.41 shares
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?

Yes 8.2% 61.24 shares
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?

Yes 60% 16.67 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 81% 61.73 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 60% 83.33 shares
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 55.1% 54.5 shares