Polymarket Trader

Marley69

0xc4516f2ebeaef3a72f1da95b43118c82ad12c637

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $805.06
Realized PnL: $643.72
Win rate: 61.9%
Open positions: 4
Closed positions: 21
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $128.89
Potential payout: $2.83K
Potential profit: $2.7K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$31.1

Yes position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $676.17
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $364.09
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $100.69

Yes position

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $93.84
Potential profit: $93.84
User PnL: -$17.83

No position

Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $344.8

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $75.79

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.95

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.53

Yes position

Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.95

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.85

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.88

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.48

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.7

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.57

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.78

Yes position

Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.25

No position

Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.71

No position

Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.09

Yes position

Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.2

No position

Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10.92

No position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$12.85

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 55.3% 1,040.26 shares
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 5.6% 2,832.82 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

No 65% 1,166.29 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

No 38.4% 782.43 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

No 70.6% 425.6 shares
Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?

No 4.6% 237.39 shares
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Yes 38% 28.72 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

No 36% 90.31 shares
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 30% 106.56 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

No 27% 38.11 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

No 27% 185.19 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

No 83% 72.17 shares