Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $4.62K
- Potential payout
- $34.19K
- Potential profit
- $29.57K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$6.65K
Polymarket Trader
dumb-trader67
0xc4843becbc3252a6a83a698e106f29aa79164cd5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.05K
- Realized PnL
- $69.2K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $1.93K
- Potential payout
- $24.17K
- Potential profit
- $22.23K
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$1.37K
Yes position
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $29.84
- Potential payout
- $19.9K
- Potential profit
- $19.87K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$288.49
Yes position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $35.17
- Potential payout
- $14.07K
- Potential profit
- $14.03K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.78K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.91K
- Potential profit
- $8.91K
- User PnL
- -$1.96K
Yes position
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $28.15
- Potential payout
- $5.12K
- Potential profit
- $5.09K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$511.29
Yes position
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.02K
- Potential profit
- $3.02K
- User PnL
- -$783.16
Yes position
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.25
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$108.75
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $12.1
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.19K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$100.1
Yes position
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $110
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.89K
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$510
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $87.51
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $1.43K
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$79.9
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $11.81
- Potential payout
- $1.31K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$120.05
Yes position
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $39.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $960.5
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- -$59.5
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $2
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $998
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$117
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $65
- Potential payout
- $999.97
- Potential profit
- $934.97
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$45
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $7.35
- Potential payout
- $699.98
- Potential profit
- $692.63
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$199.64
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $5.13
- Potential payout
- $380
- Potential profit
- $374.87
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$27.09
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $8.4
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $291.6
- Multiplier
- 35.71x
- User PnL
- -$37.5
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 5?
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $145.46
- Potential profit
- $145.46
- User PnL
- -$1.31
No position
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 51%
- Current value
- $60.91
- Potential payout
- $119.43
- Potential profit
- $58.52
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- $46.63
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.72K
Yes position
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.02K
No position
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7K
Yes position
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.34K
Yes position
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71K
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4K
No position
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.5K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.37K
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.51K
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21K
No position
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1K
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.01K
No position
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
Yes position
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $1.44K
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.01K
No position
Up Only podcast released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $947.2
Yes position
No airdrop in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $744.04
No position
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $580.14
No position
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $554.35
Yes position
Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $495
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?No 72.4% 1,000 shares
- Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 61% 20 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No 97.9% 10 shares
- Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?No 80% 9.99 shares
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?Yes 8.5% 380 shares
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?Yes 15.3% 300 shares
- Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 9.9% 1,000 shares
- Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?No 97.1% 814.72 shares
- Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?No 97.2% 185.28 shares
- Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?No 91.6% 1,100 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 12% 4,166.67 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 47% 2,127.77 shares