alwaysOn

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $3.42K
Potential payout: $12K
Potential profit: $8.58K
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$610.77

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $10.96K
Potential payout: $11.18K
Potential profit: $218.01
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $835.68

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $9.13K
Potential payout: $9.32K
Potential profit: $191.13
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $40.22

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $9.19K
Potential payout: $9.25K
Potential profit: $60.1
User PnL: $256.79

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $9.08K
Potential payout: $9.12K
Potential profit: $31.91
User PnL: $609.9

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $8.16K
Potential payout: $8.2K
Potential profit: $36.9
User PnL: $485.12

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $6.28K
Potential payout: $7.26K
Potential profit: $980.36
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $462.8

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $5.37K
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $630
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $310.03

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $4.61K
Potential payout: $5.1K
Potential profit: $484.12
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $616.84

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $4.33K
Potential payout: $5.06K
Potential profit: $734.28
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $571

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $4.97K
Potential payout: $5.03K
Potential profit: $52.78
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $191.57

No position

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $4.58K
Potential payout: $4.6K
Potential profit: $16.1
User PnL: $326.02

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $4.49K
Potential payout: $4.5K
Potential profit: $11.25
User PnL: $348.26

No position

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $3.86K
Potential payout: $3.88K
Potential profit: $17.45
User PnL: $426.41

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $3.84K
Potential payout: $3.85K
Potential profit: $13.47
User PnL: $201.78

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $3.4K
Potential payout: $3.42K
Potential profit: $22.24
User PnL: $168.86

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $3.03K
Potential payout: $3.35K
Potential profit: $318.25
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $116.25

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $3.17K
Potential payout: $3.19K
Potential profit: $22.32
User PnL: $83.01

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $387.5
Potential payout: $3.1K
Potential profit: $2.71K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$750.99

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $2.78K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $225
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $2.42K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $585
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $15

No position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $2.67K
Potential payout: $2.75K
Potential profit: $77.03
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $188.5

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $1.33K
Potential payout: $2.74K
Potential profit: $1.41K
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$778.37

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 93.7%
Current value: $2.34K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $157.51
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $95.54

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.28K

Yes position

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.29K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.66K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.73K

Yes position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.67K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.58K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.53K

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.46K

Yes position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.21K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.14K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05K

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $936.26

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $924.89

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $912.12

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $857.5

No position

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $768.47

No position

Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $764.74

No position

Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $750.35

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $735.49

Yes position

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?