Yes position
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $23.2
- Potential payout
- $2.9K
- Potential profit
- $2.88K
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$30.59
Polymarket Trader
garbagefriends
0xc5bdf06de8ac9e1a904408d101c0cdc86571ceaa
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.1K
- Realized PnL
- $16.51K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $299.55
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$226.09
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.12
- Potential payout
- $2.24K
- Potential profit
- $2.24K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$170.76
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $155.12
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$331.97
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $3.6
- Potential payout
- $1.44K
- Potential profit
- $1.44K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$10.93
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$11.11
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$11.11
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.2%
- Current value
- $63.24
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $965.08
- Multiplier
- 16.26x
- User PnL
- $5.66
No position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $861.57
- Potential payout
- $876.02
- Potential profit
- $14.45
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $8.54
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $778.83
- Potential profit
- $778.83
- User PnL
- -$116.82
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $734.91
- Potential profit
- $734.91
- User PnL
- -$44.83
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $630.8
- Potential profit
- $630.8
- User PnL
- -$13.88
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $8.67
- Potential payout
- $578.21
- Potential profit
- $569.54
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$43.36
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $500.42
- Potential payout
- $504.71
- Potential profit
- $4.29
- User PnL
- $44.29
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $4.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $495.75
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$8.25
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $491.7
- Potential profit
- $491.7
- User PnL
- -$43.45
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $484.56
- Potential payout
- $491.44
- Potential profit
- $6.88
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $47.18
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $227.22
- Potential payout
- $488.65
- Potential profit
- $261.43
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $6.97
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $41.16
- Potential payout
- $484.22
- Potential profit
- $443.06
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$41.16
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $456.86
- Potential profit
- $456.86
- User PnL
- -$55.24
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $432.67
- Potential profit
- $432.02
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$8.99
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $423.81
- Potential payout
- $427.01
- Potential profit
- $3.2
- User PnL
- $20.57
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $395.62
- Potential profit
- $395.62
- User PnL
- -$215.6
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $384.16
- Potential profit
- $384.16
- User PnL
- -$151.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.41K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $1.38K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $877.55
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $708.37
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $676.2
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $649.98
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $599.71
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $571.74
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $524.62
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $445.2
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $423.43
Yes position
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $422.46
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $411.19
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $358.07
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $337.74
No position
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $278.46
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $267.05
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $265.85
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $260.47
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $251.72
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $234.27
No position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $228.95
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 50.4% 151.51 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 45.1% 75.09 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 48.8% 100 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 69.3% 75.58 shares
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?No 57.9% 100 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 68% 20.12 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?Yes 85% 38.85 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?Yes 85% 9.42 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?Yes 85% 0.36 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?Yes 84% 12.09 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 28% 42.82 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 28% 4.8 shares