No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $98.75K
- Potential payout
- $102.59K
- Potential profit
- $3.85K
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.7K
Polymarket Trader
zthunderfury
@zthunderfury
0xc682d7943aad07c246986a7aa2989cfcb17817bb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $200.75K
- Realized PnL
- $37.42K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $25.57K
- Potential payout
- $25.71K
- Potential profit
- $141.43
- User PnL
- $620.7
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Current value
- $22.56K
- Potential payout
- $24.19K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$14.9
No position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $14.98K
- Potential payout
- $18.49K
- Potential profit
- $3.51K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $598.83
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $10K
- Potential payout
- $12.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$223.26
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $7.77K
- Potential payout
- $8.41K
- Potential profit
- $634.58
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $62.81
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $6.28K
- Potential payout
- $7.18K
- Potential profit
- $897.51
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $254.35
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $2.82K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $2.18K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$325.5
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $23.86
- Potential payout
- $3.98K
- Potential profit
- $3.95K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.11K
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $2.18K
- Potential payout
- $3.38K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $142.85
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $2.58K
- Potential payout
- $2.63K
- Potential profit
- $40.69
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $757.71
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $512.5
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.99K
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $32.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $214.1
- Potential payout
- $2.25K
- Potential profit
- $2.04K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$101.37
Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $1.89K
- Potential payout
- $1.92K
- Potential profit
- $26.88
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $932.96
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $1.29K
- Potential payout
- $1.78K
- Potential profit
- $490.22
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $26.52
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 59%
- Current value
- $574.97
- Potential payout
- $974.52
- Potential profit
- $399.55
- Multiplier
- 1.69x
- User PnL
- -$164.03
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $49.07
- Potential payout
- $917.12
- Potential profit
- $868.05
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- $11.65
Yes position
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $661.73
- Potential payout
- $802.1
- Potential profit
- $140.37
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $52.14
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $284
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $516
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$76
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $775.63
- Potential payout
- $780.7
- Potential profit
- $5.07
- User PnL
- $0.41
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $410.55
- Potential payout
- $529.74
- Potential profit
- $119.19
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$1.85
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $212.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $287.5
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$9.5
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $93
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $207
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- -$5.2
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $253.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $46.5
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $10.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.67K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $4.21K
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.93K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.9K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04K
Yes position
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- $2K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65K
No position
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
Yes position
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
Yes position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $1.04K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $994.79
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $965.26
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $912.34
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $809.26
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $641.44
Yes position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $638.97
No position
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $588.04
No position
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $576.84
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $563.27
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $561.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 71% 80.53 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 10% 1,844.3 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 88% 3,259.51 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 79.5% 238.44 shares
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?No 82.8% 1,780.36 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 4.1% 616.73 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 17.2% 957.59 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?No 99.3% 780.7 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 14% 2,500 shares
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?Yes 54% 462.07 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 99.6% 1,757 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 99.6% 57.12 shares