No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $8.88
- Potential payout
- $34.81
- Potential profit
- $25.93
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.88
Polymarket Trader
crux1s
0xc71ec3b603d63aaea22b3046a77669559da092a0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $33.93
- Realized PnL
- -$0.21
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 18
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $11.02
- Potential payout
- $13.04
- Potential profit
- $2.02
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $3.02
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $9.39
- Potential payout
- $9.84
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $3.39
Yes position
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.9%
- Current value
- $0.71
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $8.38
- Multiplier
- 12.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Yes position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.3%
- Current value
- $0.45
- Potential payout
- $7.19
- Potential profit
- $6.74
- Multiplier
- 15.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $2.46
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $1.54
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $1.61
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.65
Yes position
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will Crusaders win?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.07
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Yes position
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.79
Yes position
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
Ends Oct 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No 62% 1.61 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 98.8% 1.21 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 61% 9.84 shares
- S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15?Down 44% 2.27 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 15% 6.67 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 45% 2.22 shares
- Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes 2% 16.19 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 27.6% 18.14 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 66% 9.09 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 82% 1.22 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No 50% 4 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 20% 10 shares