Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $57.99
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 19.65x
- User PnL
- -$101.63
Polymarket Trader
varchar255
0xc798197ae9aff808af4406320f31d822ae788aab
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $883.8
- Realized PnL
- $3.5K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $478.67
- Potential profit
- $478.67
- User PnL
- -$4
Y
Yes position
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $395.22
- Potential profit
- $395.22
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $341.33
- Potential payout
- $373.04
- Potential profit
- $31.71
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $71.39
Yes position
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $226.31
- Potential profit
- $226.31
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?
Ends Nov 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $44.6
- Potential payout
- $202.74
- Potential profit
- $158.13
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $14.59
No position
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200.01
- Potential profit
- $200.01
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $17.38
- Potential payout
- $151.11
- Potential profit
- $133.73
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$22.62
Yes position
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.6%
- Current value
- $17.87
- Potential payout
- $141.85
- Potential profit
- $123.98
- Multiplier
- 7.94x
- User PnL
- -$10.13
No position
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during events in Rockland County?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $139.38
- Potential profit
- $139.38
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $1.16
- Potential payout
- $136.67
- Potential profit
- $135.51
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Verdant position
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132.33
- Potential profit
- $132.33
- User PnL
- -$18.68
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.6%
- Current value
- $88.51
- Potential payout
- $122
- Potential profit
- $33.49
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $29.51
Yes position
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $86.11
- Potential payout
- $115.59
- Potential profit
- $29.47
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $21.43
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.22
- Potential payout
- $109.34
- Potential profit
- $109.12
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.78
No position
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.6%
- Current value
- $71.54
- Potential payout
- $93.45
- Potential profit
- $21.91
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $11.54
Yes position
Will Donald Trump dance on May 7, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $81.23
- Potential profit
- $81.23
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.6%
- Current value
- $38.55
- Potential payout
- $79.4
- Potential profit
- $40.85
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$2.52
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $52.6
- Potential payout
- $74.61
- Potential profit
- $22.01
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $2.61
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $65.91
- Potential payout
- $68.87
- Potential profit
- $2.96
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $7.11
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $62.47
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.97
BIG position
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59
- Potential profit
- $59
- User PnL
- -$46.02
No position
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58
- Potential profit
- $58
- User PnL
- -$11.6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $820.28
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $284.03
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.43
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $180.67
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $171.64
Y
Yes position
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.59
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.34
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $156.56
No position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $145.9
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.5
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.61
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.18
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.54
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.98
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.19
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- $80.72
Justin Gaethje position
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.59
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.15
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.64
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.54
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.04
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.01
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.88
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.92
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 56% 8.93 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 55.9% 8.94 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 50.1% 125.46 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 65.6% 7.62 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 65.6% 7.62 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 65.6% 7.62 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 65.5% 7.63 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 65.5% 7.63 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 70% 7.14 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 70% 7.14 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 70% 7.14 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 70% 7.14 shares