ZachB66

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $223.56
Potential payout: $17.88K
Potential profit: $17.66K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$6.44

Yes position

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $96.76
Potential payout: $12.9K
Potential profit: $12.8K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$3.24

Yes position

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $85
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.92K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Matt Gaetz as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.94K
Potential profit: $3.94K
User PnL: -$9.6

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $31.88
Potential payout: $3.75K
Potential profit: $3.72K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $1.88

Yes position

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $62.79
Potential payout: $3.59K
Potential profit: $3.52K
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: $9.09

Yes position

Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.55K
Potential profit: $2.55K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Bill Gates charged by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $9.02
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.99K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$90.98

Yes position

Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.99K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 9.1%
Current value: $165.19
Potential payout: $1.83K
Potential profit: $1.66K
Multiplier: 11.05x
User PnL: $13.69

Yes position

Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $13.69
Potential payout: $1.83K
Potential profit: $1.81K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $84.86
Potential payout: $1.83K
Potential profit: $1.74K
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: $11.86

Yes position

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $22.73
Potential payout: $1.82K
Potential profit: $1.8K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $2.73

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 23.8%
Current value: $431.47
Potential payout: $1.81K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 4.20x
User PnL: -$26.53

Yes position

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $21.5
Potential payout: $1.72K
Potential profit: $1.7K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$7.7

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $110.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.39K
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$39.75

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $74.37
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.28K
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$25.63

Yes position

Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $7.29
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$92.71

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $56.25
Potential payout: $961.54
Potential profit: $905.29
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $6.25

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $538.15
Potential payout: $904.46
Potential profit: $366.31
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $338.16

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $112.72
Potential payout: $877.19
Potential profit: $764.47
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: $12.72

Yes position

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $625.47
Potential profit: $625.47
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $70.59
Potential payout: $613.81
Potential profit: $543.22
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$29.41

Yes position

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $585.72
Potential profit: $585.72
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222.53

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.47

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.13

Yes position

Will Iran strike UAE again in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.56

Celtics position

Spread: Celtics (-13.5)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.28

Athletics position

Houston Astros vs. Athletics

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.28

Yes position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.21

Nuggets position

Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100

Over position

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.31

Celtics position

Spread: Celtics (-12.5)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.24

Over position

76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.36

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $58.82

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.2

Yes position

Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.72

Something position

Nothing Ever Happens: April

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $41.91

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $40.91

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.99

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.61

Yes position

Will Chile win on 2026-06-09?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.76

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.31

Cincinnati Reds position

Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.44

Pittsburgh Pirates position

Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.82

No position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.69

Under position

Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5