Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $10.5K
- Potential payout
- $466.8K
- Potential profit
- $456.3K
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- $4.93K
Polymarket Trader
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
@Eltonma
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.19M
- Realized PnL
- $2.35M
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $433.17K
- Potential payout
- $433.83K
- Potential profit
- $650.74
- User PnL
- $4.81K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $398.6K
- Potential payout
- $400K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- User PnL
- $200.4
No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $65.82K
- Potential payout
- $98.98K
- Potential profit
- $33.16K
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $6.73K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $43.85K
- Potential payout
- $71.3K
- Potential profit
- $27.45K
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $2.91K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $56.06K
- Potential payout
- $60.61K
- Potential profit
- $4.55K
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $197.39
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $36.63K
- Potential payout
- $44.4K
- Potential profit
- $7.77K
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $1.24K
Yes position
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $1.59K
- Potential payout
- $40.76K
- Potential profit
- $39.17K
- Multiplier
- 25.64x
- User PnL
- -$2.35K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $16.7K
- Potential payout
- $38.39K
- Potential profit
- $21.69K
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $22.46K
- Potential payout
- $35.65K
- Potential profit
- $13.19K
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $4.68K
Yes position
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $103.63
- Potential payout
- $34.54K
- Potential profit
- $34.44K
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.36K
Yes position
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $1.37K
- Potential payout
- $33.85K
- Potential profit
- $32.48K
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$5.24K
Yes position
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $916.81
- Potential payout
- $30.06K
- Potential profit
- $29.14K
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$2.94K
Yes position
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $20.06K
- Potential payout
- $26.57K
- Potential profit
- $6.51K
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$1.19K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $21.3K
- Potential payout
- $21.81K
- Potential profit
- $512.65
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4.59K
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $2.5K
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $17.5K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $40.48
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $18.79K
- Potential payout
- $19.67K
- Potential profit
- $875.29
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $75.55
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $358.09
- Potential payout
- $18.36K
- Potential profit
- $18.01K
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$788.72
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.4%
- Current value
- $15.9K
- Potential payout
- $18K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $943.06
No position
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.7%
- Current value
- $15.63K
- Potential payout
- $17.24K
- Potential profit
- $1.61K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $43
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $1.15K
- Potential payout
- $17.15K
- Potential profit
- $16K
- Multiplier
- 14.93x
- User PnL
- -$2.51K
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $8.08K
- Potential payout
- $15.1K
- Potential profit
- $7.02K
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- -$4.15K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $37.69
- Potential payout
- $15.07K
- Potential profit
- $15.04K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$297.15
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $202.5
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $14.8K
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$97.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $317.55K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $292.81K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $209.41K
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178.48K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $174.88K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.59K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.77K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
Ends May 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.63K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.88K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.25K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.71K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.93K
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- $54.05K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.43K
Yes position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.43K
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.36K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.23K
Yes position
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.9K
Yes position
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.09K
Yes position
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.19K
Yes position
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.21K
Kansas Jayhawks position
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.98K
Yes position
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.06K
Northern Iowa Panthers position
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.87K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 99.6% 11,446.23 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?No 78.2% 13,934.43 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?No 79% 3,999.95 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 99.6% 200,000 shares
- Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 91% 1,601.65 shares
- Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes 0.1% 400 shares
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?Yes 99.4% 40.75 shares
- Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?No 95% 418.07 shares
- Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?No 93.9% 480.13 shares
- Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No 96.8% 689.74 shares
- Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 90% 365.2 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 98.9% 772.15 shares