No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.33K
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
phaloy
0xc8d95b8b15b68cc8079c651ed7dd0256731b37fc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $128.13
- Realized PnL
- $609.31
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $104.3
- Potential payout
- $2.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.96K
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- $24.3
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $23.83
- Potential payout
- $30.75
- Potential profit
- $6.92
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.68
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $71.39
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.81
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.35
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.57
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.16
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.62
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.57
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.76
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.67
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.22
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.53
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $12.02
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.25
No position
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.53
Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- $6.83
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.53
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.66
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.42
N
No position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.35
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.97
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.81
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes 80% 30.75 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes 21.8% 112.77 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes 35% 112.77 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes 7.1% 555 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes 7% 555 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 18% 215.8 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 20% 215.8 shares
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Yes 2.8% 1,792.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 94% 92.49 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 11% 71.42 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?Yes 0.5% 61.49 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 81% 92.49 shares