No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.85K
- Potential profit
- $3.85K
- User PnL
- -$2.43K
Polymarket Trader
tobiasschwarz
0xc8e8458a146ddb49e918c753c89630c62c36d739
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.91K
- Realized PnL
- -$260.81
- Win rate
- 44.4%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 9
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $1.81K
- Potential payout
- $1.92K
- Potential profit
- $100.57
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $114.96
Yes position
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $93.44
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$406.56
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $645.51
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $317.2
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.07
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.29
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.56
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$119.68
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Multiplier
- 12.12x
- User PnL
- -$137.48
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$411.51
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$669.65
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 15.4% 5,612.42 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 44.7% 3,552.18 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 17.8% 5,612.43 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 56.3% 3,552.18 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 69.2% 5,041.43 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 88.7% 1,915.52 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 58.7% 1,498.95 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 66.7% 1,498.96 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 36% 5,539.57 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 48% 4,166.67 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 88.5% 2,285.63 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 75% 3,597.71 shares