KenneyG

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.53
Potential payout: $177.49
Potential profit: $176.95
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$21.65

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $167.47
Potential profit: $166.38
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$5.32

No position

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $71.34
Potential payout: $116
Potential profit: $44.66
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $6.38

No position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.8
Potential profit: $90.8
User PnL: -$5.91

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $50.93
Potential profit: $50.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.09

Yes position

Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $40.14
Potential payout: $48.66
Potential profit: $8.52
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $1.7

No position

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.18
Potential profit: $44.18
User PnL: -$3.53

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10.2%
Current value: $4.32
Potential payout: $42.55
Potential profit: $38.23
Multiplier: 9.85x
User PnL: $1.75

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $30.42
Potential payout: $36
Potential profit: $5.58
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $27.65
Potential payout: $33.31
Potential profit: $5.66
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $1.02

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $16.41
Potential payout: $23.62
Potential profit: $7.21
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $16.72
Potential payout: $21.86
Potential profit: $5.14
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $17.1
Potential payout: $21.24
Potential profit: $4.14
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1.97

No position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $21.03
Potential profit: $20.98
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $21.03
Potential profit: $20.96
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$10.67

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $2.25
Potential payout: $20.76
Potential profit: $18.51
Multiplier: 9.22x
User PnL: -$0.23

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $13.59
Potential payout: $19.55
Potential profit: $5.96
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $0.65

No position

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $16.44
Potential payout: $19
Potential profit: $2.57
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.37

Yes position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $14.57
Potential payout: $18.92
Potential profit: $4.35
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: -$0.22

No position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $15.84
Potential payout: $18.31
Potential profit: $2.47
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $17
Potential profit: $15.91
Multiplier: 15.63x
User PnL: -$0.36

No position

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $14.24
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $1.76
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $9.42
Potential payout: $14.61
Potential profit: $5.19
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $10.51
Potential payout: $13.05
Potential profit: $2.54
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$0.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $287.4

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $159.99

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $158.25

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.63

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.77

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.44

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $112.94

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $112.22

Yes position

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.81

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $98.86

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $96.19

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $95.68

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.82

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $90.16

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $82.81

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $81.34

Yes position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $75.8

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $73.18

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $70.41

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $69.12

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $64.53

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $64.51

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?