Polymarket Trader

ernestosparalesto

0xc91154964918c3f73c40cec0a171cb195ae5a7ff

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $133.17
Realized PnL: $64.09
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $153.31
Potential profit: $153.31
User PnL: -$64.44

Yes position

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $41.67
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $10.03
Potential payout: $17.15
Potential profit: $7.12
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$1.29

No position

Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $10.56
Potential payout: $14.36
Potential profit: $3.81
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49%
Current value: $5.26
Potential payout: $10.73
Potential profit: $5.47
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $5.43
Potential payout: $10.24
Potential profit: $4.81
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $10.15
Potential profit: $5.43
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the GA-07 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $8.16
Potential payout: $9.84
Potential profit: $1.67
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.39

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $5.16
Potential payout: $9.74
Potential profit: $4.58
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $6.07
Potential payout: $9.26
Potential profit: $3.2
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 77.1%
Current value: $6.46
Potential payout: $8.39
Potential profit: $1.93
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $5.17
Potential payout: $8.28
Potential profit: $3.1
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $0.12

No position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $6.38
Potential payout: $8.24
Potential profit: $1.85
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0.78

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $7.93
Potential profit: $2.93
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $6.1
Potential payout: $7.82
Potential profit: $1.72
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $5.89
Potential payout: $7.4
Potential profit: $1.52
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $5.48
Potential payout: $7.35
Potential profit: $1.87
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $5.52
Potential payout: $7.27
Potential profit: $1.74
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $5.39
Potential payout: $6.62
Potential profit: $1.23
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $5.26
Potential payout: $6.61
Potential profit: $1.36
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.4%
Current value: $5.48
Potential payout: $6.5
Potential profit: $1.02
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $5.29
Potential payout: $6.41
Potential profit: $1.12
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $4.73
Potential payout: $6.35
Potential profit: $1.62
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.16

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $5.62
Potential payout: $6.28
Potential profit: $0.66
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.09

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.5

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.17

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.82

Under position

Brazil vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.07

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $2.18

No position

Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.05

No position

Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.03

Yes position

Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.96

Yes position

Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9

Yes position

Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.87

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $1.21

Yes position

Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.91

No position

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.73

No position

Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.72

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.72

Over position

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $0.65

No position

Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.51

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 71%
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.45

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?

Yes 65% 7.21 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Yes 75% 6.61 shares
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

Yes 62% 8.14 shares
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

No 86% 6.14 shares
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

No 86.7% 7 shares
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

No 82% 6.41 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 61% 8.8 shares
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

No 80.9% 7.01 shares
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 55% 10.24 shares
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

No 63% 12.11 shares
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

No 61% 8.28 shares
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

No 92% 6.1 shares