No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1K
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $156.85
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $404.98
Polymarket Trader
Schampagne
0xc932d38f38394feee092031b2a28509f505e7277
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.93K
- Realized PnL
- $3.84K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $441
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $159
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$27
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $593.86
- Potential profit
- $593.86
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $457.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $42.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $60.5
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $372.79
- Potential payout
- $441.18
- Potential profit
- $68.38
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $72.79
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $22
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $378
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$102
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $298
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $102
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $62
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $399.99
- Potential profit
- $399.99
- User PnL
- -$227.99
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $277.78
- Potential profit
- $277.78
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $265.94
- Potential payout
- $272.48
- Potential profit
- $6.54
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $67.03
No position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $133.09
- Potential payout
- $253.5
- Potential profit
- $120.41
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $33.09
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $220.99
- Potential payout
- $246.91
- Potential profit
- $25.93
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $20.99
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $161.99
- Potential payout
- $201.23
- Potential profit
- $39.24
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$4.99
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $95
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $105
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$17
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $189
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $11
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $29
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$16
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$106
No position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $190
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $10
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $18
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $147.65
- Potential profit
- $147.65
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.4%
- Current value
- $60.4
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $39.6
- Multiplier
- 1.66x
- User PnL
- $6.1
Yes position
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $14.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $85.5
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$13.5
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$6.65
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$22.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $618.02
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $391.7
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $239.27
Yes position
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $234.78
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.47
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.77
Yes position
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.27
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.15
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.72
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.51
No position
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.38
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $116.62
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.85
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.96
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.8
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.62
Yes position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.54
No position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.85
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.36
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.83
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.17
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.3
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.07
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.07
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 492.32 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.8% 439.4 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.8% 92.59 shares
- Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?Yes 8% 100 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 80% 400 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 64% 400 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?No 97.1% 195.05 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 64% 400 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Yes 57% 8.57 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Yes 57% 11 shares
- Iran leadership change by June 30?No 96.6% 444.16 shares