No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $2.48K
- Potential payout
- $7.19K
- Potential profit
- $4.71K
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $732.81
Polymarket Trader
alex2945545
0xc95539ac5c7b982484f42baeb0ff86dbf2f8b1e9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.11K
- Realized PnL
- $140.19
- Win rate
- 54.5%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 11
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $3.63K
- Potential payout
- $4.84K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- $1.63K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $276.43
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.93
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
Ends Jan 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $216.31
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.33
No position
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.94
No position
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.55
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$33.13
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$119.99
No position
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Jan 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$486.09
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 25% 991.4 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 24.6% 2,031.39 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 24% 4,166.67 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 41.3% 4,842 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No 79% 558.59 shares
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?Yes 0.2% 10,000 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No 74% 800 shares
- Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No 70.9% 1,390.54 shares
- Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?Yes 52.4% 462.96 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No 75.1% 800 shares
- Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?No 37% 540.5 shares
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?Yes 2.2% 4,606.8 shares