Polymarket Trader

Kageyo

0xc997fbf8dbb17b71489a0802cd06add7db505184

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $83.35
Realized PnL: $785.01
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $3.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $496.25
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $380.71
Potential profit: $380.71
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.68
Potential profit: $333.68
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $4.58
Potential payout: $277.78
Potential profit: $273.19
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $9.17
Potential payout: $273.79
Potential profit: $264.61
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$10.83

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $252.49
Potential profit: $252.49
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $229.55
Potential profit: $229.55
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $222.22
Potential profit: $222.22
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $203.56
Potential profit: $203.56
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $174.78
Potential profit: $174.78
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $174.43
Potential profit: $174.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $173.39
Potential profit: $173.39
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147.16
Potential profit: $147.16
User PnL: -$4.81

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $12.14
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $130.71
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$7.86

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.15
Potential profit: $136.15
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $42.22
Potential payout: $131.94
Potential profit: $89.72
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $22.22

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $6.84
Potential payout: $131.58
Potential profit: $124.74
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: $1.84

Yes position

ICE forced to unmask by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $126.92
Potential profit: $126.92
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $4.64
Potential payout: $120.48
Potential profit: $115.84
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$5.36

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110.13
Potential profit: $110.13
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $109.41
Potential profit: $109.41
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Iranian officials visit the White House by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $104.17
Potential profit: $104.17
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.3

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.55

Yes position

Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.23

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.01

No position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.78

No position

Will "Peace" be said at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.67

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.45

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.21

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.28

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.59

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.67

Yes position

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.32

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Tehran?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.46

Yes position

Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.46

Yes position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.31

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.77

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.74

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.35

Yes position

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.24

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.24

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.74

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Yes 16% 31.25 shares
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

No 22% 22.73 shares
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 11% 45.45 shares
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Yes 4.9% 203.56 shares
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?

Yes 16% 31.25 shares
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?

Yes 8.7% 57.54 shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Yes 53% 28.3 shares
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Yes 6.4% 71.87 shares
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Yes 22.7% 20.66 shares
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Yes 24% 19.57 shares
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Yes 3.3% 141.23 shares
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?

Yes 97.8% 54.18 shares