No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $2.9K
- Potential payout
- $3.2K
- Potential profit
- $304
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $413.02
Polymarket Trader
Aragorn-II
@Aragorn_II_PM
0xc9ad18bc5d11639af167cc879fbc1333e22e79d0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $20.38K
- Realized PnL
- $14.36K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Current value
- $472.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.53K
- Multiplier
- 6.35x
- User PnL
- -$97.5
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $2.97K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $34.5
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $330.51
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $2.49K
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $13.75
- User PnL
- $33.75
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1.82K
- Potential payout
- $2.1K
- Potential profit
- $283.5
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $261.5
No position
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $1.53K
- Potential payout
- $1.81K
- Potential profit
- $280.32
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $284.3
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $1.48K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $18.75
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $56.75
No position
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $896.39
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $203.61
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $59.39
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $388
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $412
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$316
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $584.5
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $115.5
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$24.5
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $345
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $255
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$42
No position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $447
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $153
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $55
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $495.73
- Potential payout
- $586.66
- Potential profit
- $90.93
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $55.73
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $486.75
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $63.25
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $65.63
- Potential payout
- $525.07
- Potential profit
- $459.44
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.1
No position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $490.54
- Potential payout
- $500.04
- Potential profit
- $9.5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4.01
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $491
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $9
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $31
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.6%
- Current value
- $413
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $87
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$5.5
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $497.49
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $2.5
- User PnL
- $37
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $322
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $78
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $74
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $295.79
- Potential payout
- $399.99
- Potential profit
- $104.2
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $287.84
- Potential payout
- $299.99
- Potential profit
- $12.15
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $29.85
No position
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $213.75
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $36.25
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $76.25
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $11
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $189
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$111
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $979.78
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $975.34
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $893.65
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $869.48
No position
Will Trump attend UFC 319?
Ends Aug 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $770.65
No position
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $770.55
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $766.55
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $759.25
No position
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $675.32
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $668.33
Yes position
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $589.2
No position
Will India invade Pakistan before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $539.72
Yes position
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?
Ends Sep 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $515.29
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $502.1
No position
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $485.33
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $461.1
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $426.6
Yes position
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $426
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $390.6
No position
Will Elon Musk attend a UFC event by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $384.96
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $383.41
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $383.03
No position
X relaunches Vine in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $376.74
Yes position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $364.54
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 15% 200 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No 87% 700 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 61% 200 shares
- Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 98% 450 shares
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No 89% 250 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.8% 400 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.8% 1,500 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 94% 225.48 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 96.9% 500 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No 65% 100 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 67% 400 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No 61% 300 shares