No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $338.15
- Potential payout
- $727.2
- Potential profit
- $389.05
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $38.15
Polymarket Trader
TPW1
@TimPWillms
0xc9c745d6081005d4a14e6b6965fa0d697a114e5b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $385.15
- Realized PnL
- $7.52K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $220.59
- Potential profit
- $220.48
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$29.89
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $18.21
- Potential payout
- $130.06
- Potential profit
- $111.85
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$21.79
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $28.69
- Potential payout
- $41.28
- Potential profit
- $12.59
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $8.69
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.97K
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $327.73
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $323.97
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $320.48
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.19
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $211.8
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $182.26
Yes position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $156.84
No position
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.01
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.24
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.71
Flavio Cobolli position
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $122.44
Yes position
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.4
No position
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.74
Knicks position
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.62
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.54
No position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.5
No position
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-04-18?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.81
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $66.25
Thunder position
Spurs vs. Thunder
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $62.3
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $62.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 41.5% 361.34 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 8.4% 400 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 10.7% 400 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 41% 365.85 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 59% 399.99 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 49% 327.95 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 8.9% 400 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 10.8% 400 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 68% 399.99 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 77% 199.99 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 60% 166.67 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 62% 161.29 shares