No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $665.21
- Potential payout
- $727
- Potential profit
- $61.8
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $61.8
Polymarket Trader
esrrhs
0xc9e5ca755c6e63b43f45fce5c2f914099a11cc34
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.26K
- Realized PnL
- $850.77
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $440.52
- Potential payout
- $478.83
- Potential profit
- $38.31
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $38.39
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $37.39
- Potential payout
- $213.63
- Potential profit
- $176.24
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$20.29
No position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.1%
- Current value
- $121.65
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $28.35
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $6.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.74
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $132.14
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $71.38
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.36
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.67
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.21
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.4
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $25.78
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.81
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $21.88
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.27
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.76
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.93
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.36
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.22
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.06
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.01
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.3
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.12
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.53
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.23
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $2.74
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.9
No position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 27% 213.63 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 16% 274 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 1.6% 127.5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 2.9% 285.33 shares
- AI bubble burst in 2026?No 77% 150 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 83% 576.06 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 83% 150.94 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No 83% 875.19 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 69% 274 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes 28% 288.46 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 28.1% 384.98 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 67% 175.84 shares