hanes69

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $1.63
Potential payout: $69.44
Potential profit: $67.81
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$3.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.1
Potential profit: $36.1
User PnL: -$23.28

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $1.31
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $22.5
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$3.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.56
Potential profit: $12.56
User PnL: -$4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.3
Potential profit: $12.3
User PnL: -$3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.8
Potential profit: $11.8
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.34
Potential profit: $10.34
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.45
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

US strike on Mexico by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $9.09
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.44
Potential profit: $8.44
User PnL: -$3

No position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.25
Potential profit: $7.25
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $7.14
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.33
Potential profit: $5.33
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $4
User PnL: -$1

Leadership Change position

Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.77
Potential profit: $3.77
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $3.7
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $3.7
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $3.58
Potential profit: $3.35
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$1.77

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $3.51
Potential profit: $3.32
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.81

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.01
Potential profit: $3.01
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.78
Potential profit: $2.78
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $2.7
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.51

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.86

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.01

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.15

Yes position

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.67

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.46

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01

Yes position

Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.96

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.96

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.87

No position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET