Yes position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $0.54
- Potential payout
- $1.3
- Potential profit
- $0.76
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Polymarket Trader
0xca4c...186f
0xca4c228f01e1c2f754f13cc928831d9994fb186f
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $23.83
- Realized PnL
- $9.87
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $1.28
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Cloud9 make a roster change before Septemeber?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $1.28
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $1.27
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange?
Ends Dec 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $0.66
- Potential payout
- $1.25
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
No position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.13
- Potential payout
- $1.25
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $1.19
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will The Weeknd perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Current value
- $1.13
- Potential payout
- $1.19
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Team Liquid make a roster change before September?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $0.91
- Potential payout
- $1.18
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $1.15
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $1.11
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $1.06
- Potential payout
- $1.11
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.3%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $1.1
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp?
Ends Dec 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $0.83
- Potential payout
- $1.1
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
No position
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $1.09
- Potential payout
- $1.1
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will Tems perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $1.08
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $1.07
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Rosalía perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $1.06
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Rauw Alejandro perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $1.06
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.06
- Potential payout
- $1.06
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Bad Bunny perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $1.06
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Taylor Swift perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $1.05
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.02
N
No position
Will the announcers say "Gamble" or "Gambling" during the Belgium vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $1.05
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.01
N
No position
Will the announcers say "Unbelievable" during the Belgium vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $1.04
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.51
Y
Yes position
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
N
No position
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
England position
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Y
Yes position
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Y
Yes position
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.28
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will Trump say "Dead by June" in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Cabinet meeting on March 26?
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the announcers say "Gamble" or "Gambling" during the Belgium vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?No 95.2% 1.05 shares
- Will Team Liquid make a roster change before September?No 85% 1.18 shares
- Will the announcers say "Unbelievable" during the Belgium vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?No 96% 1.04 shares
- Will Cloud9 make a roster change before Septemeber?No 78% 1.28 shares
- Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina FIFA World Cup Match?Yes 77% 1.3 shares
- England vs. DR Congo: Team to AdvanceEngland 76% 1.32 shares
- Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July?Yes 96% 1.04 shares
- Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA World Cup Match?No 93% 1.08 shares
- Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Argentina vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?Yes 93% 1.08 shares
- Will Bad Bunny perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?No 94.5% 1.06 shares
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No 87% 1.15 shares
- Will Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?No 96.8% 1.03 shares