Y
Yes position
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $586
- Potential profit
- $586
- User PnL
- -$265.71
Polymarket Trader
arbiteur
0xca6eba7899ee3bd495a2f995777de529d20aaf60
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.11K
- Realized PnL
- $744
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $199.83
- Potential payout
- $470.2
- Potential profit
- $270.36
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$73.8
Yes position
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $153
- Potential payout
- $360
- Potential profit
- $207
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$63.14
N
No position
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $162.75
- Potential payout
- $278.21
- Potential profit
- $115.46
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$34.16
N
No position
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $258.96
- Potential payout
- $271.02
- Potential profit
- $12.06
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $4.76
Yes position
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $240.68
- Potential payout
- $244.1
- Potential profit
- $3.42
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $16.9
N
No position
Will USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $190.24
- Potential payout
- $200.68
- Potential profit
- $10.44
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.84
Yes position
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $153
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $47
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$1
N
No position
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $193.38
- Potential payout
- $199.98
- Potential profit
- $6.6
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $5.52
N
No position
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $154.1
- Potential payout
- $184.55
- Potential profit
- $30.45
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$8.77
N
No position
Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.6%
- Current value
- $113.18
- Potential payout
- $172.66
- Potential profit
- $59.48
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$12.66
No position
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $142.35
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $7.65
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
N
No position
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $142.42
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $7.57
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.31
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $148.24
- Potential payout
- $149.81
- Potential profit
- $1.57
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.86
Yes position
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $134.57
- Potential payout
- $136.2
- Potential profit
- $1.63
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.34
N
No position
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $125.02
- Potential payout
- $133
- Potential profit
- $7.98
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$1.33
N
No position
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $103.82
- Potential payout
- $107.81
- Potential profit
- $3.99
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.55
N
No position
Will Scotland be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.4%
- Current value
- $89.23
- Potential payout
- $101
- Potential profit
- $11.77
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$1.77
N
No position
Will Canada go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $43
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $57
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- -$30
N
No position
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $94.75
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $5.25
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.86
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $97.15
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $2.85
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $4.14
No position
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.8%
- Current value
- $92.8
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $7.2
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$83
N
No position
Will Iran be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.2%
- Current value
- $80.19
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $19.8
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- -$14.95
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Y
Yes position
Will "System" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
Yes position
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $45.02
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,500 on March 8?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.83
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44
Yes position
Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.69
No position
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.79
Yes position
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.2
Y
Yes position
Will "Love" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.65
Yes position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.28
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29
No position
Will Solana dip to $50 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.33
Yes position
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.03
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.99
Yes position
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.46
No position
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.05
No position
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.99
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.8
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22
No position
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.6
N
No position
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.29
No position
Will PLC win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.23
No position
Will Trump say "N Word" in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.77
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 93.6% 6.96 shares
- Will Jordan be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 96% 29.99 shares
- Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 96.6% 20.15 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 97.8% 50 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes 97.4% 25 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 97.8% 50 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 98.3% 33.02 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 98.3% 35.14 shares
- Will Algeria go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No 82.4% 50 shares
- Will Saudi Arabia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No 97% 51 shares
- Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No 80.9% 22.66 shares
- Will South Africa be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No 97.2% 13.6 shares