agi7

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $380.32
Potential payout: $15.52K
Potential profit: $15.14K
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$22.38

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 7AM ET

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.09K
Potential profit: $2.09K
User PnL: -$1.04K

Yes position

Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $6.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.49K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$2.25

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$502.5

Yes position

Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $380
Potential profit: $380
User PnL: -$3.04

Yes position

Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $215.6
Potential profit: $215.6
User PnL: -$1.72

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Ethereum all time high by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$4.85

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $112
Potential profit: $112
User PnL: -$1.01

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$7.54

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on November 4?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $75
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Maduro mugshot released by Monday?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.5
Potential profit: $60.5
User PnL: -$22.27

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be at least 43.0 on January 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.41
Potential profit: $56.41
User PnL: -$5.01

Yes position

Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $3.31
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $41.69
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$0.74

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $8.12
Potential payout: $44
Potential profit: $35.88
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $2.84

Yes position

Maduro mugshot released by January 9?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$15.2

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on November 4?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.7
Potential profit: $31.7
User PnL: -$1.87

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $1.85
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $28.16
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on November 4?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$4.2

Yes position

Macron out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.5

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

Yes position

Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.88

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

Yes position

Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.6

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in December?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET