Polymarket Trader

PROPHET.NOTES

@prophet_notes

0xcb11f64db3ab8d00f36381300028db7f31db0d5e

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $7.6K
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.5K
User PnL: -$491

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$760

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $2.53K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $464.99
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $448.01

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$395.99

Yes position

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.99K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$191

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $189.55
Potential payout: $1.81K
Potential profit: $1.62K
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $0.97

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.36K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $142.5
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $272.52

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $907.5
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $592.5
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $302.5

Yes position

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$100

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.17K
User PnL: -$674.8

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $125
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $875.01
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$166.95

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$36

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $855
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $145
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $15

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $13
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $986.99
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $842.07
Potential profit: $842.07
User PnL: -$42.1

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $733.71
Potential profit: $733.71
User PnL: -$117.39

Yes position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $700
User PnL: -$196

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $275.37
Potential payout: $640.39
Potential profit: $365.02
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$6.4

No position

Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $188.9
Potential payout: $572.41
Potential profit: $383.51
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$181.78

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $527.25
Potential payout: $570
Potential profit: $42.75
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $73.45

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $271.66
Potential payout: $527.5
Potential profit: $255.84
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$18.19

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $185.63
Potential payout: $522.9
Potential profit: $337.27
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$2.61

Yes position

UK Recession in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $162.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $337.5
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$87.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 11% 805.21 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Yes 41% 500 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 72% 500 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 24% 1,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 63% 1,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 65% 1,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 45% 500 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 48.3% 414.08 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 79% 126.58 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 48% 416.74 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 44% 640.39 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

No 51% 36.72 shares