Polymarket Trader

thinkingmansgame

0xcb14ea66fe71f23b5426d05b6db4b86dc34cbd17

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $11.43K
Realized PnL: $33.83K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $216.77
Potential payout: $9.22K
Potential profit: $9.01K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $5.53

Yes position

Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $97.2
Potential payout: $7.78K
Potential profit: $7.68K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$17.23

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 88.6%
Current value: $4.89K
Potential payout: $5.52K
Potential profit: $632.02
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $3.56K

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $1.74K
Potential payout: $4.3K
Potential profit: $2.56K
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $937.77

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $424.05
Potential payout: $3.3K
Potential profit: $2.88K
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: $74.25

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $63.5
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.44K
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $225.62
Potential payout: $2.26K
Potential profit: $2.03K
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$935.24

Yes position

Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $255.37
Potential payout: $1.7K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$656.95

No position

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.3K
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $0.65
User PnL: $519.35

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.16K
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $121.79
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $160.26

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $166.46
Potential payout: $1.22K
Potential profit: $1.05K
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$33.54

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $64.35
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.04K
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $4.25

Yes position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $607.76
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $413.69
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$195.06

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10.4%
Current value: $102.05
Potential payout: $985.95
Potential profit: $883.91
Multiplier: 9.66x
User PnL: $26.05

Yes position

Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $8.74
Potential payout: $795
Potential profit: $786.26
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$5.4

Yes position

Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $16
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $484
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $8.93
Potential payout: $283.61
Potential profit: $274.67
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$2.69

Yes position

Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 6.9%
Current value: $17.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $232.75
Multiplier: 14.49x
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $15.01
Potential payout: $200.1
Potential profit: $185.09
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $36.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $163.1
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $1.9

Yes position

Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $6.6
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $193.4
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $11.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $88.25
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $2.9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.1K

Yes position

Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.98K

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.91K

Steelers position

Steelers vs. Lions

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.67K

Stanford Cardinal position

Stanford Cardinal vs. Boston College Eagles

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.59K

Patriots position

Spread: Patriots (-3.5)

Ends Oct 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55K

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.51K

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 13?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Bills position

Spread: Bills (-7.5)

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Cardinals position

Spread: Cardinals (-6.5)

Ends Sep 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Bears position

Spread: Commanders (-4.5)

Ends Oct 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Miami position

Florida vs. Miami

Ends Sep 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

Ravens position

Ravens vs. Vikings

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $989.7

Eagles position

Eagles vs. Packers

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $960.79

Steelers position

Steelers vs. Ravens

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $933.33

Trail Blazers position

Trail Blazers vs. Suns

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $928

No position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $926.65

Belmont Bruins position

Belmont Bruins vs. UIC Flames

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $911.61

Browns position

Browns vs. Raiders

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $888.89

76ers position

Celtics vs. 76ers

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $885.93

Yankees position

White Sox vs. Yankees

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $851.35

Quinnipiac Bobcats position

Quinnipiac Bobcats vs. Fairfield Stags

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $843.54

Over position

Giants vs. Eagles: 1H O/U 21.5

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $830.77

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 44% 300 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Yes 3.3% 74.44 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Yes 3.4% 120.56 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Yes 3.6% 5 shares
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 51% 300 shares
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Yes 83% 165 shares
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Yes 77.6% 733.99 shares
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

No 60% 700 shares
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees

Chicago White Sox 30% 322.58 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.5% 3,000 shares
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 30% 20 shares
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 31% 20 shares