No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.56K
- Potential profit
- $1.56K
- User PnL
- $0
Polymarket Trader
guacamole
0xcb628eaa705c13e88073a5cb23d3eeef8ef7c185
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $11.02K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.55K
- Potential profit
- $1.55K
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- User PnL
- $0
Dplus KIA position
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Weibo Gaming (BO3)
Ends Oct 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $440.15
- Potential profit
- $440.15
- User PnL
- -$223.6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.5K
No position
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.82K
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
No position
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $718.9
No position
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday?
Ends Jun 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $322.42
No position
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $312.15
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $264.2
No position
Will Anyone's Legend win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?
Ends Jul 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180
No position
North Korea missile test by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.01
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.35
No position
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16?
Ends May 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.03
No position
US strike on Iran on June 24?
Ends Jun 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.37
No position
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.27
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.48
No position
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.9
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.98
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.05
No position
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?
Ends Aug 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.34
No position
Another US military action against Iran by Monday?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.4
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.2
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.6
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.94
No position
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16?
Ends May 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.51
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?No 84.7% 1,200 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No 78.1% 1,558.77 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?No 95.5% 1,552.25 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes 93% 424.74 shares
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 85.7% 1,170 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes 91.4% 481.09 shares
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes 89.6% 1,120 shares
- Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?Yes 95.3% 1,364.47 shares
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs Weibo Gaming (BO3)Dplus KIA 50.8% 440.15 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on October 31?No 96.9% 709.37 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?Yes 93% 371.03 shares
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?No 98% 2,446.52 shares