Polymarket Trader

donkman

0xcb7be91850dae9b1a0a13115613a155d3521160d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $600.13
Realized PnL: -$1.48K
Win rate: 63.2%
Open positions: 7
Closed positions: 19
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5K
Potential profit: $12.5K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $600.13
Potential payout: $5.41K
Potential profit: $4.81K
Multiplier: 9.01x
User PnL: -$398.91

Yes position

North Korea missile launch by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.56K
Potential profit: $2.56K
User PnL: -$1K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.17K
Potential profit: $2.17K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $1.02K
User PnL: -$539

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $952.38
Potential profit: $952.38
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $294.12
Potential profit: $294.12
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $405.13

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $345.88

No position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $307.94

No position

Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $291.25

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $258.6

Yes position

Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $216.19

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $206.4

No position

Will more than 2.8 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by November 16?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.56

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.51

No position

U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.31

Yes position

Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.58

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.62

Yes position

Will Ja Morant be traded in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$73.87

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$228.25

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$448.74

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$460.2

Yes position

Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$473.51

No position

Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.06K

Yes position

Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.22K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Yes 18.5% 5,406.58 shares
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?

Yes 8.6% 869.98 shares
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?

Yes 3.2% 827.71 shares
US government shutdown Saturday?

Yes 33% 3.46 shares
Will Ja Morant be traded in 2025?

Yes 4.3% 607.62 shares
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025?

Yes 3.8% 3,102.85 shares
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Yes 25.6% 2,157.02 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Yes 2.3% 2,173.91 shares
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Yes 46.4% 2,157.03 shares
US government shutdown Saturday?

Yes 34.1% 7,728.22 shares
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31?

No 34.3% 2,456.07 shares
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31?

No 48.6% 200 shares