AlwaysRegressing

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $151.2K
Potential profit: $151.2K
User PnL: -$2.49K

No position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $3.09K
Potential payout: $36.36K
Potential profit: $33.27K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.63K

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.11K
Potential profit: $21.11K
User PnL: -$2.68K

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $17.83K
Potential payout: $20.97K
Potential profit: $3.15K
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $7.29K

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.03K
Potential profit: $16.03K
User PnL: -$79.99

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.04K
Potential profit: $14.04K
User PnL: -$363.95

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $5.93K
Potential payout: $13.19K
Potential profit: $7.25K
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $1.74K

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.84K
Potential profit: $11.84K
User PnL: -$20.95

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.96K
Potential profit: $9.96K
User PnL: -$219.35

Yes position

Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.82K
Potential profit: $5.82K
User PnL: -$809.57

Yes position

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.33K
Potential profit: $4.33K
User PnL: -$1.2K

No position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.9K
Potential profit: $3.9K
User PnL: -$1.14K

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.95K
Potential profit: $2.95K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.34K
Potential profit: $2.34K
User PnL: -$160.1

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.65K
Potential profit: $1.65K
User PnL: -$30

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.42K
Potential profit: $1.42K
User PnL: -$121.2

Yes position

Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $17.31
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.14K
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: $2.31

Yes position

Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.89
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.11K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$6.11

Yes position

Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $797.2
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $798
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $798
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.88
Potential payout: $750
Potential profit: $748.13
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.13

Yes position

Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.63
Potential payout: $750
Potential profit: $747.38
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $4.13
Potential payout: $750
Potential profit: $745.88
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $1.13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: May

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

No position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $523.29

Yes position

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $248.52

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.46

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $234.83

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: March

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $231.82

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.38

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $137.6

No position

ChatGPT Outage by March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.3

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $130.22

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.58

No position

Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.13

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 73.8%
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $80.93

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.89

Yes position

Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.26

Yes position

ChatGPT Outage by April 3?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.96

Yes position

Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.37

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.59

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.06

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.48

No position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43.28

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?