No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $19.21K
- Potential payout
- $44.17K
- Potential profit
- $24.95K
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$5.48K
Polymarket Trader
0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516
0xcca90a5d3c8f2d6663817e3650d6adbe9ab44c9f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $47.19K
- Realized PnL
- $71.95K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $13.02K
- Potential payout
- $29.26K
- Potential profit
- $16.24K
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- $1.94K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.34K
- Potential profit
- $21.34K
- User PnL
- -$12.98K
Yes position
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $3.54K
- Potential payout
- $18.13K
- Potential profit
- $14.6K
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$291.02
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.72K
- Potential payout
- $18.1K
- Potential profit
- $16.38K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.78K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.07K
- Potential profit
- $18.07K
- User PnL
- -$5.94K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $9.01
- Potential payout
- $18.03K
- Potential profit
- $18.02K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.23K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.21K
- Potential profit
- $16.21K
- User PnL
- -$678.13
Yes position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.6%
- Current value
- $926.51
- Potential payout
- $12.27K
- Potential profit
- $11.35K
- Multiplier
- 13.25x
- User PnL
- -$199
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.44K
- Potential profit
- $10.44K
- User PnL
- -$308.44
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $4.66K
- Potential payout
- $7.57K
- Potential profit
- $2.91K
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $510.99
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.43K
- Potential profit
- $6.43K
- User PnL
- -$1.78K
Yes position
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $8.7
- Potential payout
- $5.8K
- Potential profit
- $5.79K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$13.21
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $80.88
- Potential payout
- $5.58K
- Potential profit
- $5.5K
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$219.8
Yes position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $2.86K
- Potential payout
- $5.34K
- Potential profit
- $2.48K
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $604.38
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $23.94
- Potential payout
- $5.32K
- Potential profit
- $5.3K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$29.1
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.31K
- Potential profit
- $5.31K
- User PnL
- -$599.99
Yes position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $144.29
- Potential payout
- $4.73K
- Potential profit
- $4.59K
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$355.71
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.62K
- Potential profit
- $4.62K
- User PnL
- -$375
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $112.76
- Potential payout
- $4.44K
- Potential profit
- $4.33K
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$109.21
Yes position
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $8.86
- Potential payout
- $4.43K
- Potential profit
- $4.42K
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$48.35
Yes position
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $7
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $3.49K
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$18.49
Yes position
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.93K
- Potential profit
- $2.93K
- User PnL
- -$75.27
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $868.89
- Potential payout
- $2.72K
- Potential profit
- $1.85K
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- $273.27
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $14.3K
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.28K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $5.34K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.23K
No position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.92K
No position
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.48K
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $2.14K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.07K
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.99K
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95K
No position
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9K
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.82K
No position
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78K
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.11K
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $1.05K
No position
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $971.43
No position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $959.18
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $926.68
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $850.71
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $698.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 13% 10 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 11.6% 5,000 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 15% 1,191.53 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 15% 133.42 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 10.4% 2,000 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 10.4% 10,000 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 20% 103.96 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 49% 2,478 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 43% 1,058.92 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 56% 3,218.43 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 54% 386.29 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 54% 1,878 shares