Polymarket Trader

AlfredTheShiller

0xcd6be6693e2bc11150d397caa9e6f7c6744b68f5

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $29.93K
Realized PnL: $67.47K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $150
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $99.85K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $225
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $49.78K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $25

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $3.57K
Potential payout: $42K
Potential profit: $38.43K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$3.88K

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $310
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.69K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$70

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $9.99K
Potential payout: $12.64K
Potential profit: $2.65K
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$226.47

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $3.3K
Potential payout: $12K
Potential profit: $8.7K
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$1.99K

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $440.67
Potential payout: $10.02K
Potential profit: $9.57K
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$710.08

Yes position

Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $45
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.96K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$75

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $265
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.74K
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: $95

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $95
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.9K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$35

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $395
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.6K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $4.31K
Potential payout: $9.27K
Potential profit: $4.96K
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $259.86

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $1.74K
Potential payout: $7.09K
Potential profit: $5.35K
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$2.15K

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $682.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.32K
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$112.5

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $142.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.86K
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: $97.5

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $587.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.41K
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $135.53

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$196.95

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $292.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.71K
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $17.5

Yes position

Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $37
Potential payout: $4.62K
Potential profit: $4.59K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: $13.87

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $71.33
Potential payout: $3.33K
Potential profit: $3.26K
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$71.99

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.7%
Current value: $559.57
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.44K
Multiplier: 5.36x
User PnL: -$850.78

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $223.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.78K
Multiplier: 13.42x
User PnL: -$25.15

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $292.21
Potential payout: $2.92K
Potential profit: $2.63K
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$554.19

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $2.21K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $287.5
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $430.84

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $19.79K

Yes position

Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during WEF Address on January 21?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.17K

Yes position

Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.17K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.46K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.41K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.01K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7K

No position

Will Bernie Sanders applaud during Trump's State of the Union?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.17K

Israel position

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $2.14K

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04K

Yes position

Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.86K

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.84K

Yes position

German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52K

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5K

No position

Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.45K

Yes position

Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.39K

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24K

Yes position

Solana all time high in Q4?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

No position

Will France strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

No position

Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?

Ends Sep 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $973.7

Yes position

Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $937.94

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $913.32

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Yes 14.3% 53.43 shares
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Yes 27.8% 1,999.99 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes 40% 775 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Yes 27.6% 603.09 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes 37% 575 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Yes 83.7% 800 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Yes 8.5% 808.62 shares
Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events?

Yes 96.7% 64.93 shares
Will Trump say "Eight War" or "Nine War" or "Ninth War" during G7 events?

Yes 97% 35.98 shares
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?

Yes 95.3% 39.94 shares
Will Trump say "World War" during G7 events?

Yes 97.6% 297.21 shares
Will Trump say "Eight War" or "Nine War" or "Ninth War" during G7 events?

Yes 94.9% 113.29 shares