Polymarket Trader

armads

0xce1d15f4ab2e11cca6fefe4fe7d70889e6531b9b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $24.61K
Realized PnL: $116.2K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $11.45K
Potential payout: $12.79K
Potential profit: $1.34K
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $183.49

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $9.33K
Potential payout: $10.54K
Potential profit: $1.21K
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $102.71

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $1.25K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $8.75K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$740

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $1.83K
Potential payout: $4.76K
Potential profit: $2.93K
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$243.63

No position

Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 92.2%
Current value: $223.04
Potential payout: $241.91
Potential profit: $18.87
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$3.99

No position

Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 78.6%
Current value: $180.48
Potential payout: $229.62
Potential profit: $49.14
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$31.9

No position

Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 90.3%
Current value: $152.19
Potential payout: $168.63
Potential profit: $16.44
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $4.89

No position

Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 78.3%
Current value: $124.41
Potential payout: $158.89
Potential profit: $34.48
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: -$28.02

No position

Hurupay FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 83.3%
Current value: $72.33
Potential payout: $86.88
Potential profit: $14.55
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$13.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.37K

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.54K

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.33K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.31K

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.91K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.15K

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71K

Demoor position

Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.36K

Yes position

HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.28K

Yes position

Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.84K

Yes position

Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.64K

Yes position

EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.12K

Yes position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1K

Yes position

Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.02K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2K

No position

Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.99K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95K

No position

Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85K

No position

Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76K

Yes position

EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61K

Yes position

MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour?

Ends Nov 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56K

No position

Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48K

Yes position

Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes 40% 500 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 16.2% 1,000 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 15.4% 1,000 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 16.1% 1,000 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 23% 2,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 83.3% 12,017.42 shares
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

No 88% 5,541.09 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 89% 5,837.29 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 88% 1,953.16 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 27.2% 1,191.47 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 99.5% 35,500 shares
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

No 95.2% 65 shares