Polymarket Trader

Arcbird

0xcea7760a12915bbfb0e2d336c9eac21fcd018f37

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $10.53
Realized PnL: $1.41K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
User PnL: -$41

Yes position

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $582.52
Potential profit: $582.52
User PnL: -$300

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-07-06?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $381.38
Potential profit: $381.38
User PnL: -$120

England position

England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $368.66
Potential profit: $368.66
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $227.27
Potential profit: $227.27
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $180.37
Potential profit: $180.37
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $155.73
Potential profit: $155.73
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $144.96
Potential profit: $144.96
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-07-15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $137.93
Potential profit: $137.93
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $114.29
Potential profit: $114.29
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100.27
Potential profit: $100.27
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $10.53
Potential payout: $76.06
Potential profit: $65.53
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: $5.53

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.44
Potential profit: $69.44
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65.79
Potential profit: $65.79
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.52
Potential profit: $59.52
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.69
Potential profit: $57.69
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $53.8
Potential profit: $53.8
User PnL: -$15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.5

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.85

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.67

Yes position

Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.19

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.22

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.37

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-07-09?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.72

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $80.36

Yes position

Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.21

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $67.25

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.13

Yes position

Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.22

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.33

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.64

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.43

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.46

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.1

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.13

Yes position

Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.56

Yes position

Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.92

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.63

Yes position

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.44

Yes position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.88

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.49

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance

England 54.2% 368.66 shares
Will England win on 2026-07-15?

Yes 36.2% 137.93 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?

Yes 56.2% 266.67 shares
Will France win on 2026-07-14?

Yes 16.8% 540.54 shares
Will France win on 2026-07-14?

Yes 37% 540.54 shares
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?

Yes 65.2% 291.19 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Yes 31.8% 627.17 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Yes 54.7% 627.18 shares
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Yes 6.6% 76.06 shares
Will England win on 2026-07-11?

Yes 51.5% 582.52 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?

Yes 90.1% 502.09 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?

Yes 59.7% 502.09 shares