No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $299.94
- Potential payout
- $199.96K
- Potential profit
- $199.66K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.02K
Polymarket Trader
spamabunch
0xced2fb16502b6c9ddd7238ad11c3fb82f1721076
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.19K
- Realized PnL
- $25.78K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $43.58
- Potential payout
- $87.15K
- Potential profit
- $87.11K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.17K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $3.68
- Potential payout
- $7.37K
- Potential profit
- $7.37K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$159.76
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $4.7K
- Potential payout
- $5.7K
- Potential profit
- $997.92
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $256.61
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $209.97
- Potential payout
- $737
- Potential profit
- $527.03
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- $10.98
No position
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $460.34
- Potential payout
- $575.43
- Potential profit
- $115.09
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $18.75
Yes position
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $203.86
- Potential payout
- $259.7
- Potential profit
- $55.84
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $14.08
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $87
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $113
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.9
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$71.19
Yes position
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $50.25
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $99.75
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$24.16
Yes position
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $21.11
- Potential payout
- $63
- Potential profit
- $41.89
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$24.85
Yes position
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $4.2
- Potential payout
- $56
- Potential profit
- $51.8
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
No position
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $33.82
- Potential payout
- $41
- Potential profit
- $7.18
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $3.08
Yes position
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?
Ends Oct 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $2.09
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $27.92
- Multiplier
- 14.39x
- User PnL
- -$2.72
Yes position
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $22.99
- Potential payout
- $28.39
- Potential profit
- $5.39
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $3.41
No position
Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $19.34
- Potential payout
- $25.96
- Potential profit
- $6.62
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $9.89
Yes position
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $8.36
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $13.64
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.4%
- Current value
- $12.18
- Potential payout
- $14.44
- Potential profit
- $2.26
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- -$0.82
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.86K
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.1K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.57K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $954.03
No position
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $843.35
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $581.72
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $477.97
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $461.4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $453.3
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $439.4
Yes position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $385.28
No position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $363.21
Yes position
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.53
No position
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 18-24 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $283.84
No position
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $274.7
No position
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.59
Yes position
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.12
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.15
Yes position
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.36
No position
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.4
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $119.66
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 81%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $117.6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No 0.1% 1,052.75 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 44% 150 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 44% 50 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?No 0.1% 32,280.91 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?No 0.1% 29,697.33 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 0.1% 52,405.83 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 0.1% 175,441.31 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 0.4% 25,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 0.5% 46,848.64 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.8% 30,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.7% 40,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 1.2% 1,784.56 shares