Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $9.99
- Potential payout
- $16.51
- Potential profit
- $6.52
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $3.05
Polymarket Trader
0xcefd...7afa
0xcefdce2bd99c5031daf8d847cffa508c058e7afa
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $101.14
- Realized PnL
- $51.57
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $13.94
- Potential payout
- $16.12
- Potential profit
- $2.18
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $7.01
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $1.53
- Potential payout
- $11.37
- Potential profit
- $9.83
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$5.46
No position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.8%
- Current value
- $8.64
- Potential payout
- $11.26
- Potential profit
- $2.62
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $1.71
No position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $6.2
- Potential payout
- $11.18
- Potential profit
- $4.97
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
No position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $4.79
- Potential payout
- $11
- Potential profit
- $6.22
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $10.02
- Potential payout
- $10.83
- Potential profit
- $0.81
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.99
No position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 73.3%
- Current value
- $6.9
- Potential payout
- $9.42
- Potential profit
- $2.52
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $3.38
- Potential payout
- $9.25
- Potential profit
- $5.87
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$1.06
No position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $6.14
- Potential payout
- $9.17
- Potential profit
- $3.03
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $1.28
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $7.91
- Potential payout
- $8.46
- Potential profit
- $0.55
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.97
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $7.73
- Potential payout
- $8.36
- Potential profit
- $0.63
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.79
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $1.94
- Potential payout
- $8.08
- Potential profit
- $6.14
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$4.99
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $4.23
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $2.77
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $1.64
No position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $3.55
- Potential payout
- $6.89
- Potential profit
- $3.34
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $1.25
- Potential payout
- $6.08
- Potential profit
- $4.84
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $5.88
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$1.14
No position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $3.25
- Potential profit
- $1.8
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $1.43
- Potential payout
- $2.62
- Potential profit
- $1.19
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.49
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.79
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.02
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.62
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.47
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of July 6 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.17
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.06
No position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83
No position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.67
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
No position
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.19
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.13
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.96
No position
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.76
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.26
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.5
No position
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.22
Yes position
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.43
Yes position
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.18
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?Yes 37% 7 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No 53% 9.17 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Yes 21% 6 shares
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No 65% 7.62 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of July 6 2026?Yes 61% 8.13 shares
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes 48% 9.25 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?Yes 24% 6.25 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No 44% 3.25 shares
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?No 24% 6.08 shares
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?Yes 38% 11 shares
- Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?No 75% 9.33 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 21% 6 shares