Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.8%
- Current value
- $10.63
- Potential payout
- $157.53
- Potential profit
- $146.9
- Multiplier
- 14.81x
- User PnL
- -$4.37
Polymarket Trader
lmarc
0xcf59ae3400153de6cab3e96d84ab8dafe2939c0a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $79.07
- Realized PnL
- -$11.51
- Win rate
- 76.5%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 17
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $105.26
- Potential profit
- $105.26
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $35.21
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $6.46
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $5.21
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $34.48
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $11.29
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $17.29
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $1.29
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $4.52
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $14.71
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$5.48
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $17.43
- Potential payout
- $17.64
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $7.43
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $11.11
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.4
- Potential profit
- $10.4
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.17
- Potential profit
- $6.17
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.9
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.32
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.24
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.97
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.49
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.48
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.29
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.95
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-06-17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.77
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.05
Y
Yes position
Will Claude be restored for international customers by September 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41
Yes position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.59
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$17.06
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$27.06
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$28.82
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 7.6% 65.79 shares
- Will Claude be restored for international customers by September 30?Yes 87.4% 11.45 shares
- Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND England to score first vs. Panama?58% 8.5 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?No 52% 19.23 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?No 94.7% 26.41 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 93.5% 23.5 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 63.8% 23.5 shares
- Will England win on 2026-06-23?Yes 81% 6.17 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes 63% 11.11 shares
- Will England win on 2026-06-17?Yes 57% 8.77 shares
- Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 10.9% 91.74 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No 72% 41.67 shares