Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $223.42K
- Potential profit
- $223.42K
- User PnL
- -$37.7K
Polymarket Trader
steeplejack
0xcf6087abd66e16b59a122d45bfcdc05d4b7247ce
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $71.78K
- Realized PnL
- $595.37K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $187.69K
- Potential profit
- $187.69K
- User PnL
- -$7.88K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $183.12K
- Potential profit
- $183.12K
- User PnL
- -$30.61K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $160.35K
- Potential profit
- $160.35K
- User PnL
- -$105.27K
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.5K
- Potential profit
- $83.5K
- User PnL
- -$3.26K
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $66.04K
- Potential payout
- $66.67K
- Potential profit
- $633.36
- User PnL
- $24.95K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.15K
- Potential profit
- $22.15K
- User PnL
- -$2.24K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.87K
- Potential profit
- $21.87K
- User PnL
- -$787.84
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.85K
- Potential profit
- $20.85K
- User PnL
- -$3.1K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.43K
- Potential profit
- $18.43K
- User PnL
- -$9.37K
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.1K
- Potential profit
- $16.1K
- User PnL
- -$9.02K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $15K
- User PnL
- -$2.25K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.19K
- Potential profit
- $11.19K
- User PnL
- -$329.7
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$4.45K
Yes position
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $4.85
- Potential payout
- $9.7K
- Potential profit
- $9.7K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.12K
No position
Trump kiss by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.89K
- Potential profit
- $5.89K
- User PnL
- -$294.57
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $4.24K
- Potential payout
- $4.25K
- Potential profit
- $10.64
- User PnL
- $1.36K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.71K
- Potential profit
- $3.71K
- User PnL
- -$887.91
Yes position
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.05K
- Potential profit
- $3.05K
- User PnL
- -$109.79
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.1K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- User PnL
- -$147
No position
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.49K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.24
- User PnL
- $117.43
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $188.33
- Potential profit
- $188.33
- User PnL
- -$103.14
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.05
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$31.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $295.66K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88K
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $41.31K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.81K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.42K
Nigma Galaxy position
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.5K
Hurricanes position
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.6K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.13K
Jets position
Jets vs. Blackhawks
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.76K
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.22K
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.83K
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.26K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.56K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.38K
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83K
No position
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $920.27
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $851.89
No position
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $826.59
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $661.75
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $572.57
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?No 99.9% 198.94 shares
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%?No 99.9% 278.14 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No 61.8% 9,252.61 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 61% 41,345.14 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No 69% 141.5 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 68.6% 1,730.34 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No 66.9% 103.26 shares
- Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico VerhoevenUsyk 85% 842.22 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes 56% 40,117.14 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 66% 199.65 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes 58% 7,096.55 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes 58% 3,219.97 shares