0xD056D2E765630Ee61850a7c743A30E20D2E2F1be-1764512770031

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.72K
Potential profit: $5.72K
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.72K
Potential profit: $4.72K
User PnL: -$17.99

Yes position

Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.57K
Potential profit: $4.57K
User PnL: -$45.46

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $1.46K
Potential payout: $2.77K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$341.93

Yes position

Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.55K
Potential profit: $2.55K
User PnL: -$20.41

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $1.09K
Potential payout: $2.39K
Potential profit: $1.3K
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$0.88

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $170.71
Potential payout: $2.28K
Potential profit: $2.11K
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$295.07

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $1.16K
Potential payout: $2.17K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $30.02

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$1.26K

Yes position

Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $1.55K
Potential payout: $1.94K
Potential profit: $387.11
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $2.9

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $1.39K
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $500.54
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $476.82

No position

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.88K
Potential profit: $1.88K
User PnL: -$367.61

Yes position

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.82K
Potential profit: $1.82K
User PnL: -$20.02

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $823.44
Potential payout: $1.66K
Potential profit: $840.07
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $73.67

No position

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.61K
Potential profit: $1.61K
User PnL: -$803.34

No position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.46K
Potential profit: $1.46K
User PnL: -$603.68

Yes position

Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.41K
Potential profit: $1.41K
User PnL: -$32.69

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.37K
User PnL: -$487.4

Yes position

Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.35K
User PnL: -$33

No position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $777.47
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $507.6
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $14.89

No position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $1.28K
User PnL: -$478.95

No position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$661.48

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.18K
User PnL: -$568.86

No position

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $559.39
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $593.99
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $147.29

No position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.13K
User PnL: -$233.27

No position

Will Trump say "Equipment" during Monday news conference?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$9

No position

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $677.41
Potential payout: $974.83
Potential profit: $297.42
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$16.21

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $476.21
Potential payout: $962.03
Potential profit: $485.83
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$36.65

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $919.23
Potential profit: $919.23
User PnL: -$548.24

Yes position

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $854.65
Potential profit: $854.65
User PnL: -$42.73

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on February 2?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $849.06
Potential profit: $849.06
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $802.04
Potential profit: $802.04
User PnL: -$14

No position

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $673.96
Potential profit: $673.96
User PnL: -$389.15

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: April

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $646.02
Potential profit: $646.02
User PnL: -$289.14

No position

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $386.04
Potential payout: $643.4
Potential profit: $257.36
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: $66.47

No position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $638.76
Potential profit: $638.76
User PnL: -$246.86

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $609.87
Potential profit: $609.87
User PnL: -$25

No position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $588.24
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $557.88
Potential profit: $557.88
User PnL: -$309.44

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555
Potential profit: $555
User PnL: -$227.55

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $510.52
Potential profit: $510.52
User PnL: -$102

Yes position

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $510
Potential profit: $510
User PnL: -$25.5

No position

Will "Donald" or "Trump" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 15)

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$25

No position

Will "Iran" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 15)

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$65

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $414.41
Potential payout: $490.42
Potential profit: $76.02
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$20.45

No position

Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? (March 29)

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $480.25
Potential profit: $480.25
User PnL: -$276.4

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $425.42
Potential payout: $470.08
Potential profit: $44.66
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $98.67

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 16?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $470
Potential profit: $470
User PnL: -$103.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $755.57

No position

Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $617.15

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $609.21

Yes position

Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $542.25

No position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $496.18

No position

US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $490.67

No position

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $418.96

No position

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Implied probability: 95%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $384.87

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $366.76

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 80.9%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $340.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $324.55

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $305.51

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 30?

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $302.32

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $294.55

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $284.17

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $276.9

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 10?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $270

No position

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $264.65

No position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $259.95

No position

Will Trump say "Anniversary" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.18

No position

Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $239.74

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 9?

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.71

Stefanos Tsitsipas position

Miami Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex de Minaur

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.33

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 9?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $229.5

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 7?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $226.29

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 23?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $224.12

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 27?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $223.13

No position

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222.77

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 29?

Ends Dec 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $221.67

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $208.06

No position

Will Trump say "Trump Family" this week? (December 22 - 28)

Ends Dec 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $205.78

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 9?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $205.54

No position

Will Trump say "Sucker" or "Sucked" in December?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200.86

No position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Implied probability: 80%
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $195.62

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 22?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.03

No position

Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.66

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 28?

Ends Dec 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.26

No position

Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $184.8

Nicolas Mejia position

Morelia: Coleman Wong vs Nicolas Mejia

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $179.69

No position

Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $179.63

No position

Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $173.46

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 6?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $172.76

No position

Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.72

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 13?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.65

No position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $168.57

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 13?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.19

No position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?