Polymarket Trader

fresh

0xd064251efc30a38c3323e42113656144d4b8c4d1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.47K
Realized PnL: $8.37K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $1.45K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $55.67
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $92.95

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $743.9
Potential payout: $860
Potential profit: $116.1
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $25.9

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.4
Potential payout: $566.21
Potential profit: $562.81
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$6.6

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $194.74
Potential payout: $409.98
Potential profit: $215.24
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $10.25

No position

Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $295.12
Potential payout: $300.07
Potential profit: $4.95
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.11

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $45.36
Potential payout: $245.87
Potential profit: $200.51
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $5.36

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $16.17
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $203.83
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$1.97

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $29.86
Potential payout: $218.77
Potential profit: $188.91
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.1
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$48.1

Yes position

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $16.5
Potential payout: $149.99
Potential profit: $133.49
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$67.8

Yes position

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.07
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.21

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $105.53
Potential payout: $106.38
Potential profit: $0.85
User PnL: $5.53

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $99.86
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$38.84

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $14
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $86
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$17

No position

Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $89
Potential payout: $91.66
Potential profit: $2.66
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $5.01

No position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $87.75
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $2.25
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $4.95

No position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 75.7%
Current value: $64.38
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $20.62
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $1.18

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87.6%
Current value: $62.83
Potential payout: $71.72
Potential profit: $8.89
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $3.45

Yes position

Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $51.1
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $18.9
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $12.5

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $9.45
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $60.55
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$12.05

No position

Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $68.01
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $2
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $5

No position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $65.08
Potential payout: $68.04
Potential profit: $2.96
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$1.66

No position

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $10.63
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $51.88
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $0.63

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $44.19
Potential payout: $60.95
Potential profit: $16.76
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $1.79

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.06K

Yes position

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3K

Yes position

Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $863.7

Yes position

Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $585.31

Yes position

Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $314.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $289.57

Yes position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.19

No position

Will Workday Q1 total subscription revenue backlog be above $27.5B?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $247.87

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.62

Yes position

Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $228.07

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208.54

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.36

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.14

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.99

Yes position

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.4

No position

Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.46

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.85

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.55

Yes position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.8

No position

Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.55B?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.86

Yes position

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.98

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.13

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?

Yes 98.9% 101.11 shares
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?

No 99.7% 100.27 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

No 86% 30 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 91.9% 20 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?

Yes 99.9% 50 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

No 92.6% 30 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

No 52% 30 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

No 51.9% 5 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 82.3% 60 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

No 68% 55 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Yes 99.9% 70 shares
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Yes 12% 29.99 shares