No position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $180
- User PnL
- -$40.25
Polymarket Trader
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0xd0858eb5ba52fe540d3980354ad0fa1af017addb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $10.66
- Realized PnL
- -$84.26
- Win rate
- 68.8%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 16
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $66.67
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.96
- Potential profit
- $49.96
- User PnL
- -$1.52
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $10.66
- Potential payout
- $10.84
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.66
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?
Ends Aug 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.54
No position
DeepSeek V4 released before May?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.33
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.89
No position
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
Yes position
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.53
No position
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?
Ends Dec 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.8
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?
Ends Dec 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$18.6
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
GPT-5 released in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30.6
Yes position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$40
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?Yes 16% 31.25 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?Yes 6% 66.67 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?No 94% 11.49 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Yes 83% 10.84 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?No 87% 11.49 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Yes 72% 13.89 shares
- Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?No 58% 8.62 shares
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?Yes 12.5% 15 shares
- Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?Yes 85% 23.53 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Yes 99.9% 21.05 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Yes 95% 21.05 shares
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?No 21% 30 shares