Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.61K
- Potential profit
- $58.61K
- User PnL
- -$5.14K
Polymarket Trader
smallf
0xd1091712f4ed0e17261feb174f5c080977506fa0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $71.55K
- Realized PnL
- $89.68K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $284.72
- Potential payout
- $51.77K
- Potential profit
- $51.48K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$1.5K
No position
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $35.64K
- Potential payout
- $36.38K
- Potential profit
- $745.81
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $15.2K
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.7%
- Current value
- $2.13K
- Potential payout
- $27.84K
- Potential profit
- $25.71K
- Multiplier
- 13.07x
- User PnL
- -$1.65K
No position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $16.18K
- Potential payout
- $19.86K
- Potential profit
- $3.68K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$3.09K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.03K
- Potential profit
- $17.03K
- User PnL
- -$2.26K
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $176.92
- Potential payout
- $10.11K
- Potential profit
- $9.93K
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$785.75
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $285.9
- Potential payout
- $8.29K
- Potential profit
- $8K
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$489.64
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $12.03
- Potential payout
- $8.02K
- Potential profit
- $8.01K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.29K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.02K
- Potential profit
- $8.02K
- User PnL
- -$719.63
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $7.53K
- Potential payout
- $7.55K
- Potential profit
- $22.66
- User PnL
- $114.99
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.2%
- Current value
- $1.41K
- Potential payout
- $7.33K
- Potential profit
- $5.92K
- Multiplier
- 5.21x
- User PnL
- $234.7
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $202.78
- Potential payout
- $6.54K
- Potential profit
- $6.34K
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- -$973.54
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $6.22K
- Potential payout
- $6.44K
- Potential profit
- $215.58
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.77K
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $84.58
- Potential payout
- $6.26K
- Potential profit
- $6.18K
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$1.92K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.11K
- Potential profit
- $6.11K
- User PnL
- -$2.23K
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $804.18
- Potential payout
- $5.96K
- Potential profit
- $5.15K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$894.94
No position
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.67K
- Potential profit
- $4.67K
- User PnL
- -$497.98
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.13K
- Potential profit
- $4.13K
- User PnL
- -$382.25
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $526.83
- Potential payout
- $3.76K
- Potential profit
- $3.24K
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$8.02
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $72.16
- Potential payout
- $3.52K
- Potential profit
- $3.45K
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$139.04
Ilia Topuria position
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.47K
- Potential profit
- $3.47K
- User PnL
- -$2.75K
Y
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.31K
- Potential profit
- $3.31K
- User PnL
- -$295.52
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.85K
- Potential profit
- $2.85K
- User PnL
- -$711.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.74K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.97K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.56K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.68K
Yes position
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.51K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.72K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9K
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Multiplier
- 19.23x
- User PnL
- $1.34K
No position
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
No position
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $998.37
Yes position
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $884.64
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $794.88
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $752.28
Yes position
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $726.51
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $604.76
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $586.07
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $533.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Yes 2.8% 1,599.87 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Yes 2.1% 1,156.43 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 68.8% 126.97 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 16% 50 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 46.9% 32.93 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Yes 11% 406.87 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 16.3% 2,923.2 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 20.6% 2,368.92 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No 86.6% 248.55 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 75.2% 32.41 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 72% 17 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 81% 53.37 shares