Polymarket Trader

0xd10A59fCC18955EeAebd06D1234Cc3BD1e3fB9cD-1782111984332

0xd10a59fcc18955eeaebd06d1234cc3bd1e3fb9cd

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $122.66
Realized PnL: $20.4
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1.43
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $13.58
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$1.17

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $3.3
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $11.7
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$2.4

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.93
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$2.38

Yes position

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $1.73
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $13.28
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.47

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $9.68
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $5.32
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$0.87

No position

Will Kate Marshall win the 2026 Reno mayoral election?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $2.78
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $12.23
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $3.07
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $11.93
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $5.17
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $9.83
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$0.28

No position

Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Sep 8, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $9.23
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $5.78
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$1.82

No position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $5.78
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $9.23
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $4.58
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $10.43
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$0.57

No position

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $10.88
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $4.13
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $6.53

No position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $9.75
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%?

Ends Feb 12, 2027

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $2.02
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $12.97
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.57

No position

Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $12.32
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $1.68
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $2.93
Potential payout: $13.34
Potential profit: $10.41
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $10.54
Potential payout: $11.98
Potential profit: $1.44
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.49

Yes position

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $0.77
Potential payout: $11.04
Potential profit: $10.27
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $10.33
Potential profit: $9.29
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $8.53
Potential payout: $10.28
Potential profit: $1.75
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $6.76
Potential payout: $10.09
Potential profit: $3.33
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$0.37

No position

Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 82.9%
Current value: $8.29
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.71
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Ends Oct 26, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.45
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $4
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: -$0.85

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.85

Yes position

Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $1.45

Yes position

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57%
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $1.3

No position

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 64%
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34%
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $0.78

Yes position

Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.7

No position

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 75.5%
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25%
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: $0.65

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 35.5%
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 25%
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: $0.55

No position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.6%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 31.5%
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Ends Oct 24, 2027

Implied probability: 49.5%
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 52%
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.8%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.49

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?

Yes 70% 8 shares
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?

No 89% 10 shares
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%?

Yes 46% 5 shares
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?

No 96.1% 10 shares
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-06 House seat?

Yes 93% 5 shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Yes 77% 5 shares
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31?

Yes 90% 5 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

No 81% 5 shares
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in July?

No 55% 5 shares
Will Future feature 2 Chainz on "The Real Me"?

No 55% 5 shares
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

No 34% 5 shares
Will the Republican Party win the FL-05 House seat?

Yes 89% 5 shares