Polymarket Trader

0xd126eD762fe476452025625da4C0a5db764bc3fd-1778020453172

0xd126ed762fe476452025625da4c0a5db764bc3fd

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $512.84
Realized PnL: $498.64
Win rate: 62.5%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $50.21
Potential payout: $823.19
Potential profit: $772.98
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: -$42.99

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $75.43
Potential payout: $603.47
Potential profit: $528.04
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$1.8

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $47.53
Potential payout: $381.8
Potential profit: $334.27
Multiplier: 8.03x
User PnL: -$2.47

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $27.44
Potential payout: $152.88
Potential profit: $125.44
Multiplier: 5.57x
User PnL: $6.56

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.8%
Current value: $25.9
Potential payout: $124.84
Potential profit: $98.94
Multiplier: 4.82x
User PnL: -$4.1

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.9%
Current value: $114.01
Potential payout: $121.42
Potential profit: $7.41
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $8.35

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $7.6
Potential payout: $98.08
Potential profit: $90.48
Multiplier: 12.90x
User PnL: -$2.4

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $73.44
Potential payout: $93.61
Potential profit: $20.17
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$1.56

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $8.99
Potential payout: $87.74
Potential profit: $78.75
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $7.92
Potential payout: $83.34
Potential profit: $75.42
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$2.08

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 82.1%
Current value: $57.57
Potential payout: $70.17
Potential profit: $12.6
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$2.41

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $19.23
User PnL: -$1.73

Yes position

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.23
Potential profit: $17.23
User PnL: -$4.31

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $6.33
Potential payout: $7.23
Potential profit: $0.9
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 87.6%
Current value: $5.12
Potential payout: $5.85
Potential profit: $0.73
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 92.3%
Current value: $5.32
Potential payout: $5.77
Potential profit: $0.45
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.22

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $229.41

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $125.24

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.59

No position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.92

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.86

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.46

No position

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.93

No position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.5

Yes position

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.35

No position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.97

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 79.3%
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 89.8%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.74

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$4.24

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.8

No position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10.01

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$19.5

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$22.68

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 38% 25 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

No 62% 16.67 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

No 53% 18.87 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 47% 21.28 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

No 31% 19.23 shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 5.6% 98.04 shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

No 65.2% 15.77 shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 34.8% 27.32 shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 37.2% 26.88 shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 36.2% 27.1 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 7.9% 35.09 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 44.6% 22.32 shares