Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $7.26K
- Potential payout
- $12.85K
- Potential profit
- $5.59K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $590.88
Polymarket Trader
l3t0
0xd14aa86fa6cac2e09edd9944f5c0c0d48634a8ad
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $38.56K
- Realized PnL
- $21.79K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $3.96K
- Potential payout
- $9.1K
- Potential profit
- $5.14K
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$977.47
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $7.35K
- Potential payout
- $8.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.3K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $6.83K
- Potential payout
- $7.9K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $897.74
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $1.07K
- Potential payout
- $5.5K
- Potential profit
- $4.43K
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$66.31
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $1.64K
- Potential payout
- $4.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.86K
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$318.86
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $3.82K
- Potential payout
- $4.22K
- Potential profit
- $400.61
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $820.08
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $3.02K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $980
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $44.04
Yes position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $150.76
- Potential payout
- $3.39K
- Potential profit
- $3.24K
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$430.51
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $1.58K
- Potential payout
- $2.8K
- Potential profit
- $1.22K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $55.97
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $1.37K
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $28.7
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $41.3
Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $26.47
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- $6.47
Yes position
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $17.22
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$2.78
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$523.29
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.32
- Potential payout
- $879.5
- Potential profit
- $878.18
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$72.67
Yes position
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $786
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- $3.6
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $91.35
- Potential payout
- $630
- Potential profit
- $538.65
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$100.65
Yes position
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $495.25
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $8.25
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $491.74
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$3.25
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $30
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $370
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $395
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $17
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $383
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Current value
- $27.15
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $272.85
- Multiplier
- 11.05x
- User PnL
- $3.15
No position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $255.15
- Potential payout
- $270
- Potential profit
- $14.85
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $9.45
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.48K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33K
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $962.46
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $797.65
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $720
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $602.53
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $586.76
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $505
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $466.67
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $396.29
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $376
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $328.4
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $252
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.2
Yes position
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.79
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.45
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No 74.4% 4,000 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 43.6% 4,500 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 57% 1,800 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 17% 7,500 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?No 95% 1,400 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 64% 438.34 shares
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes 27% 15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 62.1% 1,083.08 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No 98.5% 2,400 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 42% 4,800 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 69% 141.49 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 67.8% 129.47 shares